用ChatGPT增强的Reddit情绪分析预测股价，发现效果有限。
Predicting stock prices with ChatGPT-annotated Reddit sentiment
- 用ChatGPT标注并微调RoBERTa模型，更好理解社交媒体中的非正式语言和表情符号。
- 情绪与股价相关性弱，评论量和谷歌搜索趋势反而预测力更强。
- 适合关注散户行为与市场信号复杂性的研究者参考。
2021年游戏驿站做空挤压事件凸显了散户投资者在社交媒体上的活跃对股价的影响。本文研究社交媒体情绪是否能有效预测股市走势，聚焦Reddit的r/wallstreetbets社区，分析游戏驿站（GME）和AMC娱乐（AMC）的相关讨论。我们采用两种现有文本情感分析方法，并引入一种基于ChatGPT标注与微调的RoBERTa模型，以更好解析社交媒体中的非正式语言和表情符号。通过相关性与因果性度量评估模型预测能力。结果出人意料：社交媒体情绪与股价关联较弱；而更简单的指标如评论数量和谷歌搜索趋势表现出更强的预测信号。研究揭示了散户行为的复杂性，表明传统情感分析难以全面捕捉市场驱动的在线讨论本质。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The surge of retail investor activity on social media, exemplified by the 2021 GameStop short squeeze, raised questions about the influence of online sentiment on stock prices. This paper explores whether sentiment derived from social media discussions can meaningfully predict stock market movements. We focus on Reddit's r/wallstreetbets and analyze sentiment related to two companies: GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC). To assess sentiment's role, we employ two existing text-based sentiment analysis methods and introduce a third, a ChatGPT-annotated and fine-tuned RoBERTa-based model designed to better interpret the informal language and emojis prevalent in social media discussions. We use correlation and causality metrics to determine these models' predictive power. Surprisingly, our findings suggest that social media sentiment has only a weak correlation with stock prices. At the same time, simpler metrics, such as the volume of comments and Google search trends, exhibit stronger predictive signals. These results highlight the complexity of retail investor behavior and suggest that traditional sentiment analysis may not fully capture the nuances of market-moving online discussions.
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