arXiv:2507.22962cs.LG2025-07被引 2

用AI预测农业多重气候灾害,还能解释何时何因出问题。

Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Agriculture with Featural-Temporal Explanations

  • 结合深度学习与可解释AI,分析多灾种协同影响。
  • 在美四农业区数据上准确预测六类极端天气事件。
  • 能定位关键气候因子的影响时间,助农民主动避险。

气候变化加剧了农业面临的极端气候风险,亟需可靠的多灾种早期预警系统(EWS)。传统单灾种预报方法难以捕捉多种气候事件的复杂共现关系。本文提出一种融合序列深度学习与先进可解释人工智能(XAI)的农业多灾种预警框架。基于2010至2023年美国四大主要农业区的气象数据,针对极端低温、洪水、霜冻、冰雹、热浪和强降雨六类灾害,为各区域定制模型进行验证。该框架创新性地将注意力机制与TimeSHAP(时序可解释性方法)结合,提供全面的时间动态解释,不仅能识别关键气候特征,还能精准定位其影响发生的时间点。实验结果表明,该框架在预测精度上表现优异,尤其在BiLSTM架构下效果突出,展现出支持精细化、主动型风险管理策略的能力。研究显著提升了多灾种预警系统的可解释性与实际应用价值,推动跨学科信任建立与农业气候风险管理决策优化。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Climate extremes present escalating risks to agriculture intensifying the need for reliable multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to continue to learn from recent climate behaviours. However, traditional single-hazard forecasting methods fall short in capturing complex interactions among concurrent climatic events. To address this deficiency, in this paper, we combine sequential deep learning models and advanced Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques to introduce a multi-hazard forecasting framework for agriculture. In our experiments, we utilize meteorological data from four prominent agricultural regions in the United States (between 2010 and 2023) to validate the predictive accuracy of our framework on multiple severe event types, which are extreme cold, floods, frost, hail, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall, with tailored models for each area. The framework uniquely integrates attention mechanisms with TimeSHAP (a recurrent XAI explainer for time series) to provide comprehensive temporal explanations revealing not only which climatic features are influential but precisely when their impacts occur. Our results demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, particularly with the BiLSTM architecture, and highlight the system's capacity to inform nuanced, proactive risk management strategies. This research significantly advances the explainability and applicability of multi-hazard EWS, fostering interdisciplinary trust and effective decision-making process for climate risk management in the agricultural industry.

气候预警可解释AI农业风险

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