用物理规律设计神经网络,高效预测城市交通电力等系统动态
Predicting Large-scale Urban Network Dynamics with Energy-informed Graph Neural Diffusion
- 借鉴物理规律构建基于Transformer的低维注意力机制
- 线性复杂度下在交通、电力等大规模数据上达到顶尖性能
- 适合需要高效可解释预测的城市智能系统研发者
网络化城市系统支撑人员、资源与服务的流动,对经济和社会互动至关重要。这些系统常涉及未知调控规则,仅通过传感器时序数据可观测。为支持工业与工程决策,需数据驱动模型预测城市系统的时空动态。现有图神经网络虽有潜力,但因计算开销大,在大规模网络中应用受限。本文受物理定律启发,提出符合基本原理、避免结构冗余的建模思路。通过理解微观与宏观过程,构建基于Transformer结构的可解释神经扩散方案,其注意力层由低维嵌入诱导。所提可扩展时空Transformer(ScaleSTF)具有线性复杂度,在交通流、太阳能发电和智能电表等大规模城市系统上验证,表现优于现有方法且具备显著可扩展性。结果为大规模城市网络动态预测提供了新视角。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Networked urban systems facilitate the flow of people, resources, and services, and are essential for economic and social interactions. These systems often involve complex processes with unknown governing rules, observed by sensor-based time series. To aid decision-making in industrial and engineering contexts, data-driven predictive models are used to forecast spatiotemporal dynamics of urban systems. Current models such as graph neural networks have shown promise but face a trade-off between efficacy and efficiency due to computational demands. Hence, their applications in large-scale networks still require further efforts. This paper addresses this trade-off challenge by drawing inspiration from physical laws to inform essential model designs that align with fundamental principles and avoid architectural redundancy. By understanding both micro- and macro-processes, we present a principled interpretable neural diffusion scheme based on Transformer-like structures whose attention layers are induced by low-dimensional embeddings. The proposed scalable spatiotemporal Transformer (ScaleSTF), with linear complexity, is validated on large-scale urban systems including traffic flow, solar power, and smart meters, showing state-of-the-art performance and remarkable scalability. Our results constitute a fresh perspective on the dynamics prediction in large-scale urban networks.
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