融合动态因子与生成对抗网络,生成更真实的风电场景序列。
Wind Power Scenario Generation based on the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model and Generative Adversarial Network
- 用GAN提取含时序信息的动态因子,再输入GDFM建模空间与频域相关性。
- 在澳大利亚数据上验证,生成场景的波形、波动率和谱密度更贴近真实数据。
- 适合电力系统规划者用于长期资源充裕性评估,提升风电接入可靠性分析精度。
为开展资源充裕性研究,本文利用风力发电场的时空特征——空间与时间相关性、波形、边际分布与爬坡率分布、功率谱密度及统计特性,同步生成多个长期风电场景。生成空间相关性需设计邻近电站的共同因子与远距离电站的反向因子。广义动态因子模型(GDFM)可通过交叉谱密度分析提取共同因子,但难以精确拟合波形;生成对抗网络(GAN)可借助判别器验证样本,生成具备时间相关性的合理样本。为此,本文将GAN作为滤波器,从观测数据中提取含时序信息的动态因子,并将其引入GDFM,以同时表征合理波形的空间与频率相关性。在澳大利亚数据上的数值实验表明,该方法相比仅用实际动态滤波器分布构造的GDFM或直接合成无动态因子的GAN,在生成风电场景方面表现更优,更准确还原了实际风电的统计特性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
For conducting resource adequacy studies, we synthesize multiple long-term wind power scenarios of distributed wind farms simultaneously by using the spatio-temporal features: spatial and temporal correlation, waveforms, marginal and ramp rates distributions of waveform, power spectral densities, and statistical characteristics. Generating the spatial correlation in scenarios requires the design of common factors for neighboring wind farms and antithetical factors for distant wind farms. The generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) can extract the common factors through cross spectral density analysis, but it cannot closely imitate waveforms. The GAN can synthesize plausible samples representing the temporal correlation by verifying samples through a fake sample discriminator. To combine the advantages of GDFM and GAN, we use the GAN to provide a filter that extracts dynamic factors with temporal information from the observation data, and we then apply this filter in the GDFM to represent both spatial and frequency correlations of plausible waveforms. Numerical tests on the combination of GDFM and GAN have demonstrated performance improvements over competing alternatives in synthesizing wind power scenarios from Australia, better realizing plausible statistical characteristics of actual wind power compared to alternatives such as the GDFM with a filter synthesized from distributions of actual dynamic filters and the GAN with direct synthesis without dynamic factors.
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