通过多粒度图学习提升交通流量预测的稳定性和泛化能力
Multi-Grained Temporal-Spatial Graph Learning for Stable Traffic Flow Forecasting
- 融合全局与局部时空模式,自适应增强图结构表征
- 在多个真实交通网络上优于现有基线模型,表现更稳健
- 适合需要高鲁棒性交通预测的智慧城市应用场景
时变交通流量预测在智能交通系统和智慧城市中具有关键作用。然而,动态交通流量预测是一个高度非线性的复杂问题,存在复杂的时空依赖关系。尽管现有方法在挖掘复杂交通网络中的时空模式方面取得显著进展,但仍难以有效编码全局时空模式,且易受预设地理关联的影响,导致在复杂交通环境下模型鲁棒性不足。为此,本文提出一种多粒度时空图学习框架,通过设计的图变压器编码器获取全局时空模式,并结合图卷积提取的局部模式,利用带残差连接的门控融合单元进行自适应融合。该方法能够挖掘各监测站点间的隐含全局时空关系,同时平衡局部与全局模式的重要性。实验结果表明,所提方法具备强大的表示能力,在多个真实交通网络上持续优于各类强基线模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time-evolving traffic flow forecasting are playing a vital role in intelligent transportation systems and smart cities. However, the dynamic traffic flow forecasting is a highly nonlinear problem with complex temporal-spatial dependencies. Although the existing methods has provided great contributions to mine the temporal-spatial patterns in the complex traffic networks, they fail to encode the globally temporal-spatial patterns and are prone to overfit on the pre-defined geographical correlations, and thus hinder the model's robustness on the complex traffic environment. To tackle this issue, in this work, we proposed a multi-grained temporal-spatial graph learning framework to adaptively augment the globally temporal-spatial patterns obtained from a crafted graph transformer encoder with the local patterns from the graph convolution by a crafted gated fusion unit with residual connection techniques. Under these circumstances, our proposed model can mine the hidden global temporal-spatial relations between each monitor stations and balance the relative importance of local and global temporal-spatial patterns. Experiment results demonstrate the strong representation capability of our proposed method and our model consistently outperforms other strong baselines on various real-world traffic networks.
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