arXiv:2508.00888cs.LGstat.AP2025-08被引 1

提出自适应风险检测框架,提升驾驶安全预警的准确性与可靠性。

How Much Is Too Much? Adaptive, Context-Aware Risk Detection in Naturalistic Driving

  • 基于滚动窗口与动态校准,实现跨驾驶员和时间的风险模型自适应。
  • 融合多模型输出,降低误报率,提升对危险行为的召回率。
  • 适用于智能交通系统中的实时安全反馈与驾驶员干预支持。

基于驾驶行为数据的可靠风险识别是实现实时安全反馈、车队风险管理以及辅助驾驶系统评估的基础。尽管自然驾驶研究已成为提供真实世界驾驶行为数据的重要来源,但现有风险识别框架存在两大根本局限:(i) 依赖预设时间窗口和固定阈值来区分危险与正常驾驶行为;(ii) 假设行为在驾驶员间和时间上保持平稳,忽略了异质性与时序漂移。实践中,这些局限可能导致报警时机错误、警报偏差、泛化能力差,以及更高的误报与漏报率,削弱司机信任并降低安全干预效果。为解决该问题,我们提出一个统一的上下文感知框架,通过滚动窗口、联合优化、动态校准和模型融合,在时间戳化的运动学数据上实现标签与模型随时间及驾驶员变化的自适应。该框架在两个安全指标(速度加权跟车距离、急加速/制动事件)和三种模型(随机森林、XGBoost、深度神经网络)下进行测试。结果显示,速度加权跟车距离比急事件计数更具稳定性和上下文敏感性;XGBoost在不同阈值下表现一致,而DNN在低阈值下召回率更高但试验间变异性较大。集成模型将多个模型信号整合为单一风险决策,在响应危险行为与控制误报之间取得平衡。整体表明,该框架在自适应、上下文感知的风险检测方面具有潜力,可增强智能交通系统中的实时安全反馈与以驾驶员为中心的干预能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable risk identification based on driver behavior data underpins real-time safety feedback, fleet risk management, and evaluation of driver-assist systems. While naturalistic driving studies have become foundational for providing real-world driver behavior data, the existing frameworks for identifying risk based on such data have two fundamental limitations: (i) they rely on predefined time windows and fixed thresholds to disentangle risky and normal driving behavior, and (ii) they assume behavior is stationary across drivers and time, ignoring heterogeneity and temporal drift. In practice, these limitations can lead to timing errors and miscalibration in alerts, weak generalization to new drivers/routes/conditions, and higher false-alarm and miss rates, undermining driver trust and reducing safety intervention effectiveness. To address this gap, we propose a unified, context-aware framework that adapts labels and models over time and across drivers via rolling windows, joint optimization, dynamic calibration, and model fusion, tailored for time-stamped kinematic data. The framework is tested using two safety indicators, speed-weighted headway and harsh driving events, and three models: Random Forest, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Network (DNN). Speed-weighted headway yielded more stable and context-sensitive classifications than harsh-event counts. XGBoost maintained consistent performance under changing thresholds, whereas DNN achieved higher recall at lower thresholds but with greater variability across trials. The ensemble aggregated signals from multiple models into a single risk decision, balancing responsiveness to risky behavior with control of false alerts. Overall, the framework shows promise for adaptive, context-aware risk detection that can enhance real-time safety feedback and support driver-focused interventions in intelligent transportation systems.

驾驶安全风险检测自适应系统机器学习

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