用知识图谱增强大模型,提升全球海温预测精度
OKG-LLM: Aligning Ocean Knowledge Graph with Observation Data via LLMs for Global Sea Surface Temperature Prediction
- 构建海洋知识图谱,融合领域知识与数值数据
- 在真实数据集上优于现有方法,提升预测准确性
- 适合海洋科学、气候建模与大模型应用研究者
海表温度(SST)预测是海洋科学中的关键任务,广泛应用于天气预报、渔业管理和风暴追踪。现有数据驱动方法虽取得显著进展,但常忽略过去数十年积累的丰富领域知识,限制了预测精度的进一步提升。大型语言模型(LLMs)的兴起为整合领域知识提供了新可能,但其在SST预测中的应用仍受限于海洋知识与数值数据的融合难题。为此,本文提出海洋知识图谱增强的LLM(OKG-LLM)框架,首次系统性构建专用于SST预测的海洋知识图谱(OKG)。通过图嵌入网络学习图谱中丰富的语义与结构信息,捕捉各海域特性及复杂关联,并将学习到的知识与细粒度数值SST数据对齐融合,利用预训练LLM建模温度模式实现精准预测。在真实数据集上的大量实验表明,OKG-LLM持续优于当前最优方法,展现出卓越的有效性、鲁棒性及推动SST预测发展的潜力。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction is a critical task in ocean science, supporting various applications, such as weather forecasting, fisheries management, and storm tracking. While existing data-driven methods have demonstrated significant success, they often neglect to leverage the rich domain knowledge accumulated over the past decades, limiting further advancements in prediction accuracy. The recent emergence of large language models (LLMs) has highlighted the potential of integrating domain knowledge for downstream tasks. However, the application of LLMs to SST prediction remains underexplored, primarily due to the challenge of integrating ocean domain knowledge and numerical data. To address this issue, we propose Ocean Knowledge Graph-enhanced LLM (OKG-LLM), a novel framework for global SST prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first systematic effort to construct an Ocean Knowledge Graph (OKG) specifically designed to represent diverse ocean knowledge for SST prediction. We then develop a graph embedding network to learn the comprehensive semantic and structural knowledge within the OKG, capturing both the unique characteristics of individual sea regions and the complex correlations between them. Finally, we align and fuse the learned knowledge with fine-grained numerical SST data and leverage a pre-trained LLM to model SST patterns for accurate prediction. Extensive experiments on the real-world dataset demonstrate that OKG-LLM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, showcasing its effectiveness, robustness, and potential to advance SST prediction. The codes are available in the online repository.
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