基于路网交点建模行人下一步位置,突破传统固定兴趣点限制。
Relation-Aware LNN-Transformer for Intersection-Centric Next-Step Prediction
- 以道路交叉口为节点构建轨迹图,支持开放世界预测。
- 在单步预测上准确率提升17个百分点,中位数倒数排名提高10点。
- 对定位噪声和兴趣点缺失有强鲁棒性,误差仅增2.4%~8.9%。
下一步位置预测在人类移动性建模中至关重要,支撑个性化导航与城市规划。现有方法多假设封闭世界,仅限预定义兴趣点(POIs),难以捕捉探索性或目标无关行为及道路拓扑约束。为此,本文提出一种以道路交叉口为中心的框架,将用户轨迹映射到城市道路-交叉口图上,打破封闭世界限制,支持超出固定兴趣点集的预测。为编码环境上下文,引入分扇区方向性兴趣点聚合,生成融合距离、方位、密度与存在性线索的紧凑特征。结合结构图嵌入,获得语义化的节点表示。序列建模采用关系感知的连续时间遗忘细胞与方位偏置自注意力模块混合架构(Relation-Aware LNN-Transformer),同时捕捉细粒度时序动态与长程空间依赖。在城市级轨迹数据上评估,模型相比六种先进基线,在单步预测准确率上最高提升17个百分点,中位数倒数排名(MRR)提升10个百分点;在噪声环境下仍具高鲁棒性:50米GPS扰动下准确率仅下降2.4个百分点,25%兴趣点缺失时单步准确率下降8.9个百分点。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Next-step location prediction plays a pivotal role in modeling human mobility, underpinning applications from personalized navigation to strategic urban planning. However, approaches that assume a closed world - restricting choices to a predefined set of points of interest (POIs) - often fail to capture exploratory or target-agnostic behavior and the topological constraints of urban road networks. Hence, we introduce a road-node-centric framework that represents road-user trajectories on the city's road-intersection graph, thereby relaxing the closed-world constraint and supporting next-step forecasting beyond fixed POI sets. To encode environmental context, we introduce a sector-wise directional POI aggregation that produces compact features capturing distance, bearing, density and presence cues. By combining these cues with structural graph embeddings, we obtain semantically grounded node representations. For sequence modeling, we integrate a Relation-Aware LNN-Transformer - a hybrid of a Continuous-time Forgetting Cell CfC-LNN and a bearing-biased self-attention module - to capture both fine-grained temporal dynamics and long-range spatial dependencies. Evaluated on city-scale road-user trajectories, our model outperforms six state-of-the-art baselines by up to 17 percentage points in accuracy at one hop and 10 percentage points in MRR, and maintains high resilience under noise, losing only 2.4 percentage points in accuracy at one under 50 meter GPS perturbation and 8.9 percentage points in accuracy at one hop under 25 percent POI noise.
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