UniExtreme统一建模极端天气,提升预报精度与泛化能力
UniExtreme: A Universal Foundation Model for Extreme Weather Forecasting

- 用自适应频域调制捕捉极端与正常天气的频谱差异
- 在多个数据集上显著超越现有模型,极端事件预测更准
- 适合需要跨类型极端天气预报的气象研究与应用
深度学习虽推动了气象基础模型发展,但对极端天气的预测能力仍有限。现有方法或关注一般天气,或仅针对特定极端类型,忽视真实大气中多类型极端事件的复杂共现模式。本文识别出极端事件两大特征:(1)与常规天气存在频谱差异;(2)具有层级驱动机制与地理混合特性。为此提出UniExtreme,一个通用极端天气预报基础模型,包含两个核心模块:(1)自适应频域调制(AFM)模块,通过可学习的Beta分布滤波器与多粒度频谱聚合,捕捉区域级极端与正常天气的频谱差异;(2)事件先验增强(EPA)模块,利用双层记忆融合网络引入区域特异的极端事件先验,以解析极端事件的层级多样性与复合型结构。大量实验表明,UniExtreme在极端与一般天气预测任务中均优于当前最优基线,在多样化极端场景下展现出更强适应性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for weather forecasting, yet their ability to predict extreme weather events remains limited. Existing approaches either focus on general weather conditions or specialize in specific-type extremes, neglecting the real-world atmospheric patterns of diversified extreme events. In this work, we identify two key characteristics of extreme events: (1) the spectral disparity against normal weather regimes, and (2) the hierarchical drivers and geographic blending of diverse extremes. Along this line, we propose UniExtreme, a universal extreme weather forecasting foundation model that integrates (1) an Adaptive Frequency Modulation (AFM) module that captures region-wise spectral differences between normal and extreme weather, through learnable Beta-distribution filters and multi-granularity spectral aggregation, and (2) an Event Prior Augmentation (EPA) module which incorporates region-specific extreme event priors to resolve hierarchical extreme diversity and composite extreme schema, via a dual-level memory fusion network. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UniExtreme outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both extreme and general weather forecasting, showcasing superior adaptability across diverse extreme scenarios.
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