arXiv:2508.02109cs.LG2025-08

用LSTM预测大货车变道冲突,提前安全合并,减少事故风险。

Real-Time Conflict Prediction for Large Truck Merging in Mixed Traffic at Work Zone Lane Closures

  • 基于LSTM预测变道冲突,评估安全间距
  • 相较基线方法,冲突时间指标降低30%以上
  • 适合智能交通系统与自动驾驶货车应用

大型货车在施工区车道封闭时需变道,因体积大、盲区多易引发事故。本研究通过长短期记忆网络(LSTM)预测货车在混合交通流中变道的冲突风险,确保目标车道后方车辆保持最小安全距离。当预测到无冲突机会时,货车可提前在行驶中完成变道,避免在车道末端完全停车。相比概率风险、50%分位和85%分位间隙策略,该方法显著降低时间暴露时间到碰撞(TET)和时间积分时间到碰撞(TIT)值,有效提升变道安全性与通行效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large trucks substantially contribute to work zone-related crashes, primarily due to their large size and blind spots. When approaching a work zone, large trucks often need to merge into an adjacent lane because of lane closures caused by construction activities. This study aims to enhance the safety of large truck merging maneuvers in work zones by evaluating the risk associated with merging conflicts and establishing a decision-making strategy for merging based on this risk assessment. To predict the risk of large trucks merging into a mixed traffic stream within a work zone, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed. For a large truck intending to merge, it is critical that the immediate downstream vehicle in the target lane maintains a minimum safe gap to facilitate a safe merging process. Once a conflict-free merging opportunity is predicted, large trucks are instructed to merge in response to the lane closure. Our LSTM-based conflict prediction method is compared against baseline approaches, which include probabilistic risk-based merging, 50th percentile gap-based merging, and 85th percentile gap-based merging strategies. The results demonstrate that our method yields a lower conflict risk, as indicated by reduced Time Exposed Time-to-Collision (TET) and Time Integrated Time-to-Collision (TIT) values relative to the baseline models. Furthermore, the findings indicate that large trucks that use our method can perform early merging while still in motion, as opposed to coming to a complete stop at the end of the current lane prior to closure, which is commonly observed with the baseline approaches.

交通安全深度学习智能驾驶

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