arXiv:2508.02161cs.LG2025-08

融合全局与局部时间信息,提升轨迹预测精度

User Trajectory Prediction Unifying Global and Local Temporal Information

  • 用MLP提取全局时间特征,MSCNN捕捉局部动态模式
  • 12步预测中MSE降5.04%,MAE降4.35%优于ModernTCN
  • 适合需高精度轨迹预测的智能交通、位置服务场景

轨迹预测对制定前瞻性策略、预判用户移动行为至关重要。如何在可接受的推理时间内降低预测误差成为关键问题。轨迹数据同时包含全局与局部时间信息,且用户行为呈现多时间尺度特性,增加了完整时序模式提取的难度。为此,提出一种基于多层感知机(MLP)、多尺度卷积神经网络(MSCNN)和交叉注意力(CA)的轨迹预测模型。其中,MLP用于提取各特征的全局时间信息;MSCNN通过建模局部时间范围内特征间的交互来捕捉局部时间信息,并采用不同尺寸的卷积核以适应多分辨率的时间模式;最后,通过交叉注意力机制融合全局与局部信息。实验表明,在12步预测中,该模型相较ModernTCN将均方误差(MSE)降低5.04%,平均绝对误差(MAE)降低4.35%,同时保持相近的推理时间。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Trajectory prediction is essential for formulating proactive strategies that anticipate user mobility and support advance preparation. Therefore, how to reduce the forecasting error in user trajectory prediction within an acceptable inference time arises as an interesting issue. However, trajectory data contains both global and local temporal information, complicating the extraction of the complete temporal pattern. Moreover, user behavior occurs over different time scales, increasing the difficulty of capturing behavioral patterns. To address these challenges, a trajectory prediction model based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), multi-scale convolutional neural network (MSCNN), and cross-attention (CA) is proposed. Specifically, MLP is used to extract the global temporal information of each feature. In parallel, MSCNN is employed to extract the local temporal information by modeling interactions among features within a local temporal range. Convolutional kernels with different sizes are used in MSCNN to capture temporal information at multiple resolutions, enhancing the model's adaptability to different behavioral patterns. Finally, CA is applied to fuse the global and local temporal information. Experimental results show that our model reduces mean squared error (MSE) by 5.04% and mean absolute error (MAE) by 4.35% compared with ModernTCN in 12-step prediction, while maintaining similar inference time.

轨迹预测多尺度建模注意力机制

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。