arXiv:2508.02183cs.LG2025-08

解决信贷多维连续变量的因果估计难题,保障风险与额度正相关。

Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization

  • 基于双重机器学习框架,处理多维连续信贷变量
  • 在真实平台测试中提升贷款决策效果,显著降低风险
  • 强制单调性约束,符合金融领域专家经验

优化个人贷款平台的授信额度、利率和还款期限对管理借款人风险与生命周期价值(LTV)至关重要。然而,由于风控限制和长期还款周期,随机对照试验常被禁止,只能依赖有偏观测数据进行反事实估计。现有因果方法主要针对二值或离散处理变量,在连续多维场景下表现不佳。此外,金融领域要求处理变量与结果间具有可证明的单调关系(如额度越高风险越大)。为此,我们提出 Multi-Treatment-DML 框架,利用双重机器学习实现:(i) 观测数据去偏以进行因果效应估计;(ii) 处理任意维度的连续处理变量;(iii) 强制处理-结果间的单调性约束,确保符合领域规范。在公开基准和真实工业数据集上的大量实验验证了该方法的有效性。进一步在真实个人贷款平台开展的在线 A/B 测试表明,Multi-Treatment-DML 在实际贷款运营中具备显著优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces significant challenges: randomized trials are often prohibited by risk controls and long repayment cycles, forcing reliance on biased observational data. Existing causal methods primarily handle binary/discrete treatments and struggle with continuous, multi-dimensional settings. Furthermore, financial domain knowledge mandates provably monotonic treatment-outcome relationships (e.g., risk increases with credit limit).To address these gaps, we propose Multi-Treatment-DML, a novel framework leveraging Double Machine Learning (DML) to: (i) debias observational data for causal effect estimation; (ii) handle arbitrary-dimensional continuous treatments; and (iii) enforce monotonic constraints between treatments and outcomes, guaranteeing adherence to domain requirements.Extensive experiments on public benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, online A/B testing conducted on a realworld personal loan platform, confirms the practical superiority of Multi-Treatment-DML in real-world loan operations.

因果推断信贷风险机器学习金融建模

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