用数学理论增强Transformer,让时间序列预测更稳定可靠。
DeepKoopFormer: A Koopman Enhanced Transformer Based Architecture for Time Series Forecasting
- 融合柯尔莫哥洛夫算子理论与Transformer,建模动态系统演化
- 在风速、加密货币等数据上,长期预测误差更低且抗噪更强
- 适合需要可解释性与鲁棒性的高维时序场景,如气象与金融
时间序列预测在科学、工业和环境领域至关重要,尤其面对高维非线性系统时。尽管基于Transformer的模型在长程预测中表现优异,但常存在可解释性差和噪声下不稳定的缺陷。本文提出DeepKoopFormer,一种融合Transformer表征能力与柯尔莫哥洛夫算子理论严谨性的预测框架。模型采用编码-传播-解码结构,通过潜空间中谱约束的线性柯尔莫哥洛夫算子学习时序动态。引入谱半径有界、基于李雅普诺夫的能量正则化及正交参数化等结构保证,提升稳定性与可解释性。在合成动力系统、真实气候数据(风速与地表气压)、金融时间序列(加密货币)及电力生成数据集上进行了全面评估。结果表明,DeepKoopFormer在准确性、抗噪性与长期预测稳定性方面均优于标准LSTM与基线Transformer模型。该框架在高维动态系统中具备灵活性、可解释性与鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting plays a vital role across scientific, industrial, and environmental domains, especially when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear systems. While Transformer-based models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in long-range forecasting, they often suffer from interpretability issues and instability in the presence of noise or dynamical uncertainty. In this work, we propose DeepKoopFormer, a principled forecasting framework that combines the representational power of Transformers with the theoretical rigor of Koopman operator theory. Our model features a modular encoder-propagator-decoder structure, where temporal dynamics are learned via a spectrally constrained, linear Koopman operator in a latent space. We impose structural guarantees-such as bounded spectral radius, Lyapunov based energy regularization, and orthogonal parameterization to ensure stability and interpretability. Comprehensive evaluations are conducted on both synthetic dynamical systems, real-world climate dataset (wind speed and surface pressure), financial time series (cryptocurrency), and electricity generation dataset using the Python package that is prepared for this purpose. Across all experiments, DeepKoopFormer consistently outperforms standard LSTM and baseline Transformer models in terms of accuracy, robustness to noise, and long-term forecasting stability. These results establish DeepKoopFormer as a flexible, interpretable, and robust framework for forecasting in high dimensional and dynamical settings.
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