arXiv:2508.02634cs.AIcs.LG2025-08被引 1

用贝叶斯网络生成可操作的反事实解释,保护数据隐私并提升政策公平性。

Actionable Counterfactual Explanations Using Bayesian Networks and Path Planning with Applications to Environmental Quality Improvement

  • 基于贝叶斯网络建模数据密度,通过路径规划搜索可操作的反事实
  • 在15个合成数据集上比现有方法更简单且更具可操作性
  • 适用于环境政策评估,能识别住房等社会因素的潜在负面影响

反事实解释研究为获得不同结果应如何改变原始情形,帮助用户理解机器学习机制。行动可行性指将原案例转化为反事实案例的能力。本文提出一种无需直接使用训练数据的可操作反事实解释方法:仅用数据学习密度估计器,构建搜索空间,再结合路径规划求解,隐藏原始敏感数据。重点采用贝叶斯网络进行密度估计,因其更强的可解释性,在涉及公平性的高风险场景中尤为适用。在包含15个数据集的合成基准上,本方法生成的反事实更可操作且更简洁。在真实世界环保署数据集上测试,支持更高效、公平的美国各县生活质量改善政策研究。方法捕捉变量间交互关系,确保决策公平性——例如改善空气或水质的政策可能损害其他领域。尤其发现与住房危机相关的社会人口变量可能对社区造成严重负面影响。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Counterfactual explanations study what should have changed in order to get an alternative result, enabling end-users to understand machine learning mechanisms with counterexamples. Actionability is defined as the ability to transform the original case to be explained into a counterfactual one. We develop a method for actionable counterfactual explanations that, unlike predecessors, does not directly leverage training data. Rather, data is only used to learn a density estimator, creating a search landscape in which to apply path planning algorithms to solve the problem and masking the endogenous data, which can be sensitive or private. We put special focus on estimating the data density using Bayesian networks, demonstrating how their enhanced interpretability is useful in high-stakes scenarios in which fairness is raising concern. Using a synthetic benchmark comprised of 15 datasets, our proposal finds more actionable and simpler counterfactuals than the current state-of-the-art algorithms. We also test our algorithm with a real-world Environmental Protection Agency dataset, facilitating a more efficient and equitable study of policies to improve the quality of life in United States of America counties. Our proposal captures the interaction of variables, ensuring equity in decisions, as policies to improve certain domains of study (air, water quality, etc.) can be detrimental in others. In particular, the sociodemographic domain is often involved, where we find important variables related to the ongoing housing crisis that can potentially have a severe negative impact on communities.

反事实解释贝叶斯网络政策优化公平性

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