arXiv:2508.02739q-fin.STcs.AI2025-08AAAI被引 30

Kronos用预训练模型分析金融蜡烛图,效果远超传统方法。

Kronos: A Foundation Model for the Language of Financial Markets

  • 设计专用分词器,将价格与交易数据转为序列供模型学习。
  • 在120亿条全球市场数据上预训练,零样本预测性能提升93%。
  • 适合量化交易、风险预测和生成真实交易数据的研究者使用。

大规模预训练范式(如大语言模型)推动了时间序列基础模型(TSFM)的发展,但其在金融蜡烛图(K-line)数据上的应用仍受限,表现常不如非预训练架构。现有模型也常忽略波动率预测和合成数据生成等关键下游任务。为此,我们提出Kronos,一个专为金融蜡烛图建模设计的统一可扩展预训练框架。Kronos引入专用分词器,将连续市场信息离散化为令牌序列,保留价格动态与交易活动模式。我们在超过120亿条来自45个全球交易所的多市场数据上进行自回归预训练,使模型能学习精细的时间与跨资产表示。Kronos在多种金融任务中展现卓越的零样本性能:在基准数据集上,价格序列预测的RankIC相比领先TSFM提升93%,比最优非预训练基线高出87%;波动率预测的MAE降低9%;合成蜡烛图生成的保真度提升22%。这些结果确立Kronos作为端到端金融时序分析的强大通用基础模型。预训练模型已公开于https://github.com/shiyu-coder/Kronos。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains limited, often underperforming non-pre-trained architectures. Moreover, existing TSFMs often overlook crucial downstream tasks such as volatility prediction and synthetic data generation. To address these limitations, we propose Kronos, a unified, scalable pre-training framework tailored to financial K-line modeling. Kronos introduces a specialized tokenizer that discretizes continuous market information into token sequences, preserving both price dynamics and trade activity patterns. We pre-train Kronos using an autoregressive objective on a massive, multi-market corpus of over 12 billion K-line records from 45 global exchanges, enabling it to learn nuanced temporal and cross-asset representations. Kronos excels in a zero-shot setting across a diverse set of financial tasks. On benchmark datasets, Kronos boosts price series forecasting RankIC by 93% over the leading TSFM and 87% over the best non-pre-trained baseline. It also achieves a 9% lower MAE in volatility forecasting and a 22% improvement in generative fidelity for synthetic K-line sequences. These results establish Kronos as a robust, versatile foundation model for end-to-end financial time series analysis. Our pre-trained model is publicly available at https://github.com/shiyu-coder/Kronos.

金融时序预训练模型蜡烛图生成模型

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