用AI模拟普通人判断合理性,为法律标准提供可量化的实证依据。
The Generative Reasonable Person
- 用大模型复现三类普通人判断实验,生成近万条模拟决策。
- 模型显示普通人重社会认同而非成本效益,与教科书理论相反。
- 适合法官、律师和监管者快速测试公众理解,成本极低。
本文提出「生成式合理人」这一新工具,用于估算普通人对合理性的判断。面对人工智能能力宣称常超越证据的现状,研究采用随机对照试验方法,将大语言模型应用于近10,000次模拟决策,复现了关于过失、同意和合同解释的三项已发表研究。结果表明,模型能再现与教科书理论相悖的微妙模式:在评估过失时,模型与人类一样更重视社会一致性而非成本效益分析;在同意问题上,实质性谎言比材料性谎言更不易削弱同意效力;在合同解释中,模型认为隐藏费用比公平条款更具可执行性。长期以来,学界争论“合理人”是经验性的还是规范性的、多数人的还是理想化的,但该争论基于一个已失效的前提——普通人判断难以获取、耗时且无法规模化。生成式合理人打破了这一限制,为法官提供对精英直觉的实证检验,让资源有限的诉讼方获得模拟陪审团反馈,使监管机构低成本测试公众理解程度。原本依赖司法直觉的合理人标准,因有了实证基线而变得透明化,偏离公众理解需被阐明而非默认。在合理约束下,生成式合理人或可成为合理判断的“词典”。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This Article introduces the generative reasonable person, a new tool for estimating how ordinary people judge reasonableness. As claims about AI capabilities often outpace evidence, the Article proceeds empirically: adapting randomized controlled trials to large language models, it replicates three published studies of lay judgment across negligence, consent, and contract interpretation, drawing on nearly 10,000 simulated decisions. The findings reveal that models can replicate subtle patterns that run counter to textbook treatment. Like human subjects, models prioritize social conformity over cost-benefit analysis when assessing negligence, inverting the hierarchy that textbooks teach. They reproduce the paradox that material lies erode consent less than lies about a transaction's essence. And they track lay contract formalism, judging hidden fees more enforceable than fair. For two centuries, scholars have debated whether the reasonable person is empirical or normative, majoritarian or aspirational. But much of this debate assumed a constraint that no longer holds: that lay judgments are expensive to surface, slow to collect, and unavailable at scale. Generative reasonable people loosen that constraint. They offer judges empirical checks on elite intuition, give resource-constrained litigants access to simulated jury feedback, and let regulators pilot-test public comprehension, all at a fraction of survey costs. The reasonable person standard has long functioned as a vessel for judicial intuition precisely because the empirical baseline was missing. With that baseline now available, departures from lay understanding become transparent rather than hidden, a choice to be justified, not a fact to be assumed. Properly cabined, the generative reasonable person may become a dictionary for reasonableness judgments.
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