用实验模拟未来科技，预测其社会影响。
The Science Fiction Science Method
- 通过实验模拟未来技术，测试不同情境下的社会反应。
- 参与者在受控环境中表现出对虚拟科技的明确态度与行为差异。
- 适合政策制定者和科技伦理研究者参考。
预测尚未实现的未来技术对社会与行为的影响，有助于在这些影响固化前引导其发展与监管。传统方法依赖定性叙事，本文提出一种新方法——‘科幻科学’：通过实验模拟未来技术，让参与者在受控变体中体验，并收集其态度与行为的定量数据。该方法虽具潜力，但因实验设计面临严峻效度挑战，长期未被主流接纳。为应对这些挑战，本文讨论了可研究技术的边界，以及所需的非传统、沉浸式实验方法。文章旨在阐明该方法被边缘化的原因，揭示其若建立在坚实而非常规的方法基础上所能带来的益处，并探讨如何通过规范化推动科学界形成良性循环，促进更多研究者参与。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predicting the social and behavioral impact of future technologies, before they are achieved, would allow us to guide their development and regulation before these impacts get entrenched. Traditionally, this prediction has relied on qualitative, narrative methods. Here we describe a method which uses experimental methods to simulate future technologies, and collect quantitative measures of the attitudes and behaviors of participants assigned to controlled variations of the future. We call this method 'science fiction science'. We suggest that the reason why this method has not been fully embraced yet, despite its potential benefits, is that experimental scientists may be reluctant to engage in work facing such serious validity threats as science fiction science. To address these threats, we consider possible constraints on the kind of technology that science fiction science may study, as well as the unconventional, immersive methods that science fiction science may require. We seek to provide perspective on the reasons why this method has been marginalized for so long, what benefits it would bring if it could be built on strong yet unusual methods, and how we can normalize these methods to help the diverse community of science fiction scientists to engage in a virtuous cycle of validity improvement.
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