AI模型SolarSeer三秒内完成全美24小时太阳辐射预测,精度超传统气象模型。
SolarSeer: Ultrafast and accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasts outperforming numerical weather prediction across the USA
- 用卫星历史数据直接预测未来太阳辐射,跳过复杂物理模拟。
- 比主流气象模型误差降低15%以上,全美1800个站点验证有效。
- 每秒处理1500倍于传统方法,适合大规模可再生能源调度。
精准的24小时太阳辐照度预报对太阳能光伏发电系统的安全经济运行至关重要。传统数值天气预报(NWP)模型虽性能领先,但依赖计算成本高昂的数据同化和复杂的偏微分方程(PDE)求解以模拟大气物理过程。本文提出SolarSeer,一个面向美国本土(CONUS)的端到端大型人工智能模型,用于太阳辐照度预测。SolarSeer通过直接将历史卫星观测映射为未来预报,省去数据同化与求解PDE的计算开销。该效率使SolarSeer在速度上超过传统NWP模型1500倍以上,可在3秒内以5公里分辨率生成覆盖整个美国本土的24小时云量与太阳辐照度预测。与美国最先进的NWP系统——高分辨率快速刷新(HRRR)相比,SolarSeer在再分析数据中将太阳辐照度预报的均方根误差降低27.28%,在1800个站点上的平均误差降低15.35%。SolarSeer还能有效捕捉太阳辐照度波动,显著提升一阶辐照度差值预测精度。其超快、高精度的24小时太阳辐照度预测为向可持续净零能源系统转型提供了有力支撑。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the safe and economic operation of solar photovoltaic systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting performance but rely on computationally costly data assimilation and solving complicated partial differential equations (PDEs) that simulate atmospheric physics. Here, we introduce SolarSeer, an end-to-end large artificial intelligence (AI) model for solar irradiance forecasting across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). SolarSeer is designed to directly map the historical satellite observations to future forecasts, eliminating the computational overhead of data assimilation and PDEs solving. This efficiency allows SolarSeer to operate over 1,500 times faster than traditional NWP, generating 24-hour cloud cover and solar irradiance forecasts for the CONUS at 5-kilometer resolution in under 3 seconds. Compared with the state-of-the-art NWP in the CONUS, i.e., High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), SolarSeer significantly reduces the root mean squared error of solar irradiance forecasting by 27.28% in reanalysis data and 15.35% across 1,800 stations. SolarSeer also effectively captures solar irradiance fluctuations and significantly enhances the first-order irradiance difference forecasting accuracy. SolarSeer's ultrafast, accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasts provide strong support for the transition to sustainable, net-zero energy systems.
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