arXiv:2508.04165cs.LG2025-08

用少量标注数据,让太阳能预测模型跨地区准确运行。

Semi-Supervised Deep Domain Adaptation for Predicting Solar Power Across Different Locations

  • 采用师生模型实现无源域数据的半监督领域自适应。
  • 仅需目标域20%标注数据,预测准确率提升最高达11.36%。
  • 适合缺乏标签数据的太阳能发电预测场景。

精准的太阳能发电预测对不同地理区域可再生能源资源评估至关重要。然而,地理与气象特征差异导致领域偏移,是构建跨区域通用预测模型的主要瓶颈。现有模型在某一地区表现良好,却在另一地区性能下降。加之标注数据不足和存储问题,使任务更加困难。为此,本文提出一种半监督深度领域自适应框架,仅需少量目标域标注数据即可实现高精度预测。方法基于源域数据训练深度卷积神经网络,并通过无源师生模型配置将模型适配至目标域。该师生模型结合一致性损失与交叉熵损失,实现半监督学习,且预测时无需源域数据。在加州、佛罗里达州和纽约州作为目标域时,仅标注20%数据,相比非自适应方法,预测准确率分别提升11.36%、6.65%和4.92%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate solar generation prediction is essential for proper estimation of renewable energy resources across diverse geographic locations. However, geographical and weather features vary from location to location which introduces domain shift - a major bottleneck to develop location-agnostic prediction model. As a result, a machine-learning model which can perform well to predict solar power in one location, may exhibit subpar performance in another location. Moreover, the lack of properly labeled data and storage issues make the task even more challenging. In order to address domain shift due to varying weather conditions across different meteorological regions, this paper presents a semi-supervised deep domain adaptation framework, allowing accurate predictions with minimal labeled data from the target location. Our approach involves training a deep convolutional neural network on a source location's data and adapting it to the target location using a source-free, teacher-student model configuration. The teacher-student model leverages consistency and cross-entropy loss for semi-supervised learning, ensuring effective adaptation without any source data requirement for prediction. With annotation of only $20 \%$ data in the target domain, our approach exhibits an improvement upto $11.36 \%$, $6.65 \%$, $4.92\%$ for California, Florida and New York as target domain, respectively in terms of accuracy in predictions with respect to non-adaptive approach.

太阳能预测领域自适应半监督学习

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