提出PA-RNet模型,让多模态时间序列预测更抗文本噪声干扰。
PA-RNet: Perturbation-Aware Residual Network for Robust Multimodal Time Series Forecasting
- 先感知文本扰动,再优化融合特征,保留有用信息
- 在多种数据上比现有方法误差更低,抗噪表现稳定
- 适合处理含噪声文本的金融、气象等实时预测场景
现实应用中,多模态时间序列预测面临文本信息不可靠的问题:辅助文本常含无关、模糊、不完整或结构损坏内容,直接融合易引入噪声语义信号,降低预测性能。为此,本文提出PA-RNet——一种面向扰动感知的残差网络,用于鲁棒多模态时间序列预测。不同于直接融合文本与数值表示,PA-RNet首先以扰动感知方式精炼多模态特征,保留稳定上下文信息,抑制不稳定或误导性信号;再将优化后的文本表示与时间动态对齐,提升在噪声条件下的预测可靠性。理论证明,PA-RNet关于文本嵌入是Lipschitz连续的,且所提出的谱残差校正可降低零均值文本扰动下的期望预测误差。通过注入文本扰动的补充实验验证,PA-RNet在多个领域均显著优于当前最优基线,在原始与扰动文本条件下保持稳定预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In real-world applications, multimodal time-series forecasting faces a key challenge: textual information is often useful but unreliable. Auxiliary texts may contain irrelevant, ambiguous, incomplete, or structurally corrupted content, making direct text integration prone to introducing noisy semantic signals and degrading forecasting performance. Therefore, robust multimodal forecasting requires a model that can exploit useful textual context while suppressing misleading perturbations. To address this challenge, we propose PA-RNet, a carefully designed perturbation-aware residual network for robust multimodal time-series forecasting. Rather than directly fusing textual and numerical representations, PA-RNet first refines multimodal features in a perturbation-aware manner, preserving stable contextual information while reducing unstable or misleading signals. The refined textual representations are then aligned with temporal dynamics, enabling more reliable forecasting under noisy multimodal conditions. Theoretically, we prove that PA-RNet is Lipschitz continuous with respect to textual embeddings and show that the proposed spectral residual correction can reduce the expected prediction error under zero-mean textual perturbations. We further conduct supplementary experiments with injected textual perturbations to examine the robustness of PA-RNet. The results across diverse domains demonstrate that PA-RNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and maintains stable forecasting performance under both original and noise-perturbed textual conditions.
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