针对灾后电力恢复中的公平性问题,提出兼顾效率与公平的预测-优化框架。
Uncertainty-aware Predict-Then-Optimize Framework for Equitable Post-Disaster Power Restoration
- 基于不确定性感知的修复时长预测,提升预判准确性。
- 相比基线模型,平均停电时长减少3.60%,社区间不平等下降14.19%。
- 适合关注灾害恢复公平性的电网运营商与政策制定者。
极端天气事件频发凸显了高效且公平的电力系统恢复的迫切需求。当前电力公司主要依据各区域报修数量决策,但数据驱动分析发现弱势社区报修量显著偏低,导致恢复方案不公平,加剧其长期断电风险。为此,本文提出一种兼顾效率与公平的灾后电力恢复策略。挑战在于:修复时长预测受数据异方差影响大,且强化学习倾向于选择低不确定性行动,可能损害公平性。为此,我们设计了一个名为EPOPR的预测-优化框架,包含两个核心组件:(1) 面向公平性的分位数回归(Equity-Conformalized Quantile Regression),实现不确定性感知的修复时长预测;(2) 空间-时间注意力强化学习(Spatial-Temporal Attentional RL),自适应不同区域的不确定性水平以支持公平决策。实验表明,相较于先进基线方法,EPOPR将平均停电时长降低3.60%,社区间不平等程度下降14.19%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, highlights the urgent need for efficient and equitable power system restoration. Many electricity providers make restoration decisions primarily based on the volume of power restoration requests from each region. However, our data-driven analysis reveals significant disparities in request submission volume, as disadvantaged communities tend to submit fewer restoration requests. This disparity makes the current restoration solution inequitable, leaving these communities vulnerable to extended power outages. To address this, we aim to propose an equity-aware power restoration strategy that balances both restoration efficiency and equity across communities. However, achieving this goal is challenging for two reasons: the difficulty of predicting repair durations under dataset heteroscedasticity, and the tendency of reinforcement learning agents to favor low-uncertainty actions, which potentially undermine equity. To overcome these challenges, we design a predict-then-optimize framework called EPOPR with two key components: (1) Equity-Conformalized Quantile Regression for uncertainty-aware repair duration prediction, and (2) Spatial-Temporal Attentional RL that adapts to varying uncertainty levels across regions for equitable decision-making. Experimental results show that our EPOPR effectively reduces the average power outage duration by 3.60% and decreases inequity between different communities by 14.19% compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
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