arXiv:2508.04830econ.GNcs.CL2025-08被引 15

美联储在疫情期更强调金融稳定与非常规政策沟通,反应更被动。

Federal Reserve Communication and the COVID-19 Pandemic

  • 用定制词典+情感分析,识别疫情期沟通重点变化。
  • 金融稳定情绪下降预示后续宽松货币政策决策。
  • 非常规政策沟通已成为美联储会议纪要的常态。

本研究考察了美联储在新冠疫情期间的沟通策略,对比其在以往经济压力时期的表现。通过针对新冠疫情、非常规货币政策(UMP)和金融稳定性的专用词典,结合情感分析与主题建模技术,发现疫情期间美联储沟通显著聚焦于金融稳定、市场波动、社会福利及UMP,表现出明显的情境不确定性。通过与互联网泡沫和全球金融危机时期的比较,分析内容、情感与时间维度,结果显示美联储对新冠疫情的响应比以往危机更具被动性。此外,利率声明与会议纪要中金融稳定相关情绪的下降,提前预示了后续的宽松货币政策决策。研究还发现,自全球金融危机以来,将非常规货币政策纳入联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要和主席讲话已成为“新常态”,反映了央行在危机后沟通策略的制度性调整。这些发现深化了我们对中央银行在危机中沟通演变的理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this study, we examine the Federal Reserve's communication strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them with communication during previous periods of economic stress. Using specialized dictionaries tailored to COVID-19, unconventional monetary policy (UMP), and financial stability, combined with sentiment analysis and topic modeling techniques, we identify a distinct focus in Fed communication during the pandemic on financial stability, market volatility, social welfare, and UMP, characterized by notable contextual uncertainty. Through comparative analysis, we juxtapose the Fed's communication during the COVID-19 crisis with its responses during the dot-com and global financial crises, examining content, sentiment, and timing dimensions. Our findings reveal that Fed communication and policy actions were more reactive to the COVID-19 crisis than to previous crises. Additionally, declining sentiment related to financial stability in interest rate announcements and minutes anticipated subsequent accommodative monetary policy decisions. We further document that communicating about UMP has become the "new normal" for the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and Chairman's speeches since the Global Financial Crisis, reflecting an institutional adaptation in communication strategy following periods of economic distress. These findings contribute to our understanding of how central bank communication evolves during crises and how communication strategies adapt to exceptional economic circumstances.

货币政策央行沟通金融稳定疫情经济

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