arXiv:2508.05388cs.AI2025-08被引 18

基于实时数据流的铁路故障预测框架,支持自然语言与可视化解释。

An Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Railway Predictive Maintenance using Data Streams from the Metro Operator of Portugal

  • 构建在线处理流水线,动态生成统计与频域特征。
  • 在波尔图地铁数据集上实现98%以上F值与99%准确率。
  • 首次实现故障预测的自然语言与视觉解释,适合运维决策者使用。

本研究提出一种面向智能交通系统的实时数据驱动铁路预测性维护方案。所提方法构建了包含样本预处理、增量分类与结果解释的处理流水线。该在线流水线具有两大创新:(i) 专用样本预处理模块,可实时生成统计与频率相关特征;(ii) 可解释性模块。这是首个实现故障预测自然语言与视觉解释的工作。实验基于葡萄牙波尔图地铁运营商的MetroPT数据集,结果表明F值超过98%,准确率高达99%。在铁路维护场景中,高精度对实际运营至关重要——高F值确保既能有效检测真实故障,又最大限度减少误报,提升服务可用性;高准确率则直接降低运维成本并增强安全性。分析显示,该流水线在类别不平衡与噪声环境下仍保持高性能,且解释内容能真实反映决策逻辑。这些结果验证了方法的科学性与实际应用价值,使决策者能通过早期故障信号快速识别问题并采取行动。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This work contributes to a real-time data-driven predictive maintenance solution for Intelligent Transportation Systems. The proposed method implements a processing pipeline comprised of sample pre-processing, incremental classification with Machine Learning models, and outcome explanation. This novel online processing pipeline has two main highlights: (i) a dedicated sample pre-processing module, which builds statistical and frequency-related features on the fly, and (ii) an explainability module. This work is the first to perform online fault prediction with natural language and visual explainability. The experiments were performed with the MetroPT data set from the metro operator of Porto, Portugal. The results are above 98 % for F-measure and 99 % for accuracy. In the context of railway predictive maintenance, achieving these high values is crucial due to the practical and operational implications of accurate failure prediction. In the specific case of a high F-measure, this ensures that the system maintains an optimal balance between detecting the highest possible number of real faults and minimizing false alarms, which is crucial for maximizing service availability. Furthermore, the accuracy obtained enables reliability, directly impacting cost reduction and increased safety. The analysis demonstrates that the pipeline maintains high performance even in the presence of class imbalance and noise, and its explanations effectively reflect the decision-making process. These findings validate the methodological soundness of the approach and confirm its practical applicability for supporting proactive maintenance decisions in real-world railway operations. Therefore, by identifying the early signs of failure, this pipeline enables decision-makers to understand the underlying problems and act accordingly swiftly.

铁路维护在线学习可解释性故障预测

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