考虑就医行为变化,提升医疗模型在不同医院的预测效果
Prediction of Survival Outcomes under Clinical Presence Shift: A Joint Neural Network Architecture
- 构建联合神经网络,同时建模就诊间隔与数据缺失模式
- 在MIMIC-III数据集上,死亡预测准确率显著优于传统模型
- 适合关注临床模型跨机构迁移的医生与研究者
电子健康记录源于患者与医疗系统的复杂互动,这种互动过程称为临床存在(clinical presence),常影响观测结果。当前临床预测模型普遍忽略临床存在,导致性能下降且在新场景下难以迁移。本文提出一种多任务循环神经网络,联合建模观察间隔、数据缺失过程与生存结局。该方法形式化了临床存在变化下的模型可迁移性问题,并从理论上证明联合建模能提升迁移性能。在真实世界死亡预测任务中,基于MIMIC-III数据集的实验表明,相比不考虑观察过程的先进模型,本方法显著提升了预测性能与跨机构适用性。结果强调了利用临床存在信息对提升模型性能和可迁移性的重要性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Electronic health records arise from the complex interaction between patients and the healthcare system. This observation process of interactions, referred to as clinical presence, often impacts observed outcomes. When using electronic health records to develop clinical prediction models, it is standard practice to overlook clinical presence, impacting performance and limiting the transportability of models when this interaction evolves. We propose a multi-task recurrent neural network that jointly models the inter-observation time and the missingness processes characterising this interaction in parallel to the survival outcome of interest. Our work formalises the concept of clinical presence shift when the prediction model is deployed in new settings (e.g. different hospitals, regions or countries), and we theoretically justify why the proposed joint modelling can improve transportability under changes in clinical presence. We demonstrate, in a real-world mortality prediction task in the MIMIC-III dataset, how the proposed strategy improves performance and transportability compared to state-of-the-art prediction models that do not incorporate the observation process. These results emphasise the importance of leveraging clinical presence to improve performance and create more transportable clinical prediction models.
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