arXiv:2508.05659cs.LGstat.ME2025-08被引 1

将因果回路图转化为动态模型,识别不确定条件下的关键干预点。

Diagrams-to-Dynamics (D2D): Exploring Causal Loop Diagram Leverage Points under Uncertainty

  • 基于因果连接结构,从静态图生成可模拟的动态模型
  • 在无实证数据下仍能区分高/低影响干预点,与校准模型一致
  • 开源工具支持非专家快速上手,适合复杂系统研究者

因果回路图(CLDs)广泛用于健康与环境研究中表征复杂问题的假设因果结构。但作为定性且静态的表示,其在支持动态分析和制定干预策略方面存在局限。本文提出Diagram-to-Dynamics(D2D)方法,可在缺乏实证数据时,将CLDs转换为探索性系统动力学模型。仅需用户按协议标注变量为存量、流量或辅助变量及常数,D2D即利用已有因果连接及其极性信息,模拟假设干预并探索潜在的关键干预点(即‘杠杆点’)。结果表明,D2D在识别高/低排名杠杆点方面优于静态网络中心性分析,且与基于相同输入构建的校准系统动力学模型具有更高一致性,同时提供不确定性估计并指导未来数据收集。D2D已实现为开源Python包及网页应用,以降低动态建模门槛,支持进一步测试与跨领域应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Background: Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are widely used in health and environmental research to represent hypothesized causal structures underlying complex problems. However, as qualitative and static representations, CLDs are limited in their ability to support dynamic analysis and inform intervention strategies. We propose Diagrams-to-Dynamics (D2D), a method for converting CLDs into exploratory system dynamics models in the absence of empirical data. With minimal user input - following a protocol to label variables as stocks, flows or auxiliaries, and constants - D2D utilizes the structural information already encoded in CLDs, namely the existence and polarity of causal connections, to simulate hypothetical interventions and explore potentially influential places to intervene, known as 'leverage points,' under uncertainty. Results: D2D helps distinguish between high- and low-ranked leverage points. We compare D2D to a calibrated system dynamics model constructed from the same CLD and variable labels. D2D showed greater consistency with the calibrated model than did static network centrality analysis, while also providing uncertainty estimates and guidance for future data collection. Conclusions: The D2D method is implemented in an open-source Python package and a web-based application to support further testing and to lower the barrier to dynamic modeling for researchers working with CLDs. Future studies could help establish the approach's utility across a broad range of cases and domains.

系统动力学因果图不确定性干预点

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