arXiv:2508.05791cs.LGcs.AI2025-08被引 1

融合多源数据与置信度感知,实现高精度电网拓扑重建。

From Imperfect Signals to Trustworthy Structure: Confidence-Aware Inference from Heterogeneous and Reliability-Varying Utility Data

  • 基于物理布局与动态信号双维度联合建模
  • 在8000+电表上实现95%以上拓扑重建准确率
  • 适合电力系统运维与智能电网开发者

精确的配电网络拓扑对现代电网可靠运行至关重要。然而,实际用电数据来自多个来源,具有不同特征和质量水平。本研究与Oncor Electric Delivery合作,提出一种可扩展框架,通过系统整合异构数据重构可信拓扑。我们发现配电拓扑由两个互补维度决定:物理基础设施的空间布局(如GIS和设备元数据)以及系统在信号域中的动态行为(如电压时间序列)。联合利用这两个维度可实现完整且物理一致的网络连接重建。为应对数据质量不均而不牺牲可观测性,我们引入置信度感知推理机制,保留结构信息但不完美的输入,并量化每个推断连接的可靠性以供运维人员理解。该不确定性软处理与硬性物理可行性约束紧密结合:将变压器容量限制、辐射状拓扑要求等运行约束直接嵌入学习过程。这些组件共同确保推理既具备不确定性感知又结构合法,可在真实部署条件下快速收敛至可操作的可信拓扑。框架在Oncor服务区内3条馈线超过8000个电表的数据上验证,拓扑重建准确率超95%,在置信度校准和计算效率方面显著优于基线方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate distribution grid topology is essential for reliable modern grid operations. However, real-world utility data originates from multiple sources with varying characteristics and levels of quality. In this work, developed in collaboration with Oncor Electric Delivery, we propose a scalable framework that reconstructs a trustworthy grid topology by systematically integrating heterogeneous data. We observe that distribution topology is fundamentally governed by two complementary dimensions: the spatial layout of physical infrastructure (e.g., GIS and asset metadata) and the dynamic behavior of the system in the signal domain (e.g., voltage time series). When jointly leveraged, these dimensions support a complete and physically coherent reconstruction of network connectivity. To address the challenge of uneven data quality without compromising observability, we introduce a confidence-aware inference mechanism that preserves structurally informative yet imperfect inputs, while quantifying the reliability of each inferred connection for operator interpretation. This soft handling of uncertainty is tightly coupled with hard enforcement of physical feasibility: we embed operational constraints, such as transformer capacity limits and radial topology requirements, directly into the learning process. Together, these components ensure that inference is both uncertainty-aware and structurally valid, enabling rapid convergence to actionable, trustworthy topologies under real-world deployment conditions. The proposed framework is validated using data from over 8000 meters across 3 feeders in Oncor's service territory, demonstrating over 95% accuracy in topology reconstruction and substantial improvements in confidence calibration and computational efficiency relative to baseline methods.

电网拓扑置信度感知多源数据融合智能电网

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