arXiv:2508.05915cs.LG2025-08

将随机时间序列分解为均值与方差信号,实现去噪和平滑。

Dual Signal Decomposition of Stochastic Time Series

  • 用机器学习拟合均值和方差双信号,通过导数正则化保持平滑性。
  • 联合学习可捕捉异方差时间序列中的复杂关系,噪声被设计为无自相关的平稳过程。
  • 适用于需要分离趋势与波动的场景,如金融、工业监控等。

本文提出一种随机时间序列的双重信号分解方法,将其拆分为代表均值与离散度的两个分量,并分离出噪声。该分解通过机器学习实现,损失函数兼顾原始序列拟合与双信号的平滑性约束,包含一阶和二阶时间导数项。为保留特殊模式,基于统计过程控制方法引入正则化权重调节。该方法既可作为平滑算法,也可视为去噪工具。考虑了顺序学习与联合学习两种方式:前者先学均值再学离散度,后者同时拟合双信号,更适合具有异方差特征的时间序列。学习过程通过求解非线性无约束优化问题或采用具有顺序/双输出结构的神经网络实现。超参数调优聚焦于使分离噪声成为无自相关性的平稳随机过程;根据应用需求,可侧重阶梯状离散状态或平滑序列。分解后的双信号可在二维空间中表示,用于揭示内在结构、预测均值与离散度,或分析多序列间的交叉效应。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The decomposition of a stochastic time series into three component series representing a dual signal - namely, the mean and dispersion - while isolating noise is presented. The decomposition is performed by applying machine learning techniques to fit the dual signal. Machine learning minimizes the loss function which compromises between fitting the original time series and penalizing irregularities of the dual signal. The latter includes terms based on the first and second order derivatives along time. To preserve special patterns, weighting of the regularization components of the loss function has been introduced based on Statistical Process Control methodology. The proposed decomposition can be applied as a smoothing algorithm against the mean and dispersion of the time series. By isolating noise, the proposed decomposition can be seen as a denoising algorithm. Two approaches of the learning process have been considered: sequential and jointly. The former approach learns the mean signal first and then dispersion. The latter approach fits the dual signal jointly. Jointly learning can uncover complex relationships for the time series with heteroskedasticity. Learning has been set by solving the direct non-linear unconstrained optimization problem or by applying neural networks that have sequential or twin output architectures. Tuning of the loss function hyperparameters focuses on the isolated noise to be a stationary stochastic process without autocorrelation properties. Depending on the applications, the hyperparameters of the learning can be tuned towards either the discrete states by stepped signal or smoothed series. The decomposed dual signal can be represented on the 2D space and used to learn inherent structures, to forecast both mean and dispersion, or to analyze cross effects in case of multiple time series.

时间序列去噪双信号机器学习

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