基于历史预测注意力的轨迹预测,提前预警高速施工区车辆冲突。
Historical Prediction Attention Mechanism based Trajectory Forecasting for Proactive Work Zone Safety in a Digital Twin Environment
- 用历史预测注意力机制提升施工区车辆轨迹预测精度。
- 在仿真数据上实现0.32米的最终位移误差,优于主流基准。
- 适合智能交通与数字孪生安全系统研究者参考。
主动安全系统通过预判车辆间潜在冲突并提前干预,以减少施工区事故。本文提出一种基于数字孪生环境的基础设施协同主动安全预警系统,融合实时多传感器数据、高精地图与基于历史预测注意力机制的轨迹预测模型。通过SUMO与CARLA联合仿真环境,结合Lanelet2高精地图和HPNet模型,实现了高速公路施工区车辆交互的有效轨迹预测与早期预警生成。采用联合平均位移误差(ADE)与联合最终位移误差(FDE)评估预测精度:所提基础设施增强型HPNet模型在施工区仿真数据集上取得最小联合FDE 0.3228米、最小联合ADE 0.1327米,显著优于Argoverse(最小联合FDE: 1.0986米,最小联合ADE: 0.7612米)与Interaction(最小联合FDE: 0.8231米,最小联合ADE: 0.2548米)数据集上的基准表现。此外,基于车辆边界框与概率冲突建模的预警应用,可有效识别潜在冲突并触发告警。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Proactive safety systems aim to mitigate risks by anticipating potential conflicts between vehicles and enabling early intervention to prevent work zone-related crashes. This study presents an infrastructure-enabled proactive work zone safety warning system that leverages a Digital Twin environment, integrating real-time multi-sensor data, detailed High-Definition (HD) maps, and a historical prediction attention mechanism-based trajectory prediction model. Using a co-simulation environment that combines Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) and CAR Learning to Act (CARLA) simulators, along with Lanelet2 HD maps and the Historical Prediction Network (HPNet) model, we demonstrate effective trajectory prediction and early warning generation for vehicle interactions in freeway work zones. To evaluate the accuracy of predicted trajectories, we use two standard metrics: Joint Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Joint Final Displacement Error (FDE). Specifically, the infrastructure-enabled HPNet model demonstrates superior performance on the work-zone datasets generated from the co-simulation environment, achieving a minimum Joint FDE of 0.3228 meters and a minimum Joint ADE of 0.1327 meters, lower than the benchmarks on the Argoverse (minJointFDE: 1.0986 m, minJointADE: 0.7612 m) and Interaction (minJointFDE: 0.8231 m, minJointADE: 0.2548 m) datasets. In addition, our proactive safety warning generation application, utilizing vehicle bounding boxes and probabilistic conflict modeling, demonstrates its capability to issue alerts for potential vehicle conflicts.
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