arXiv:2508.06687cs.RO2025-08

用卫星星座+机器学习实时追踪和预测野火,精度显著提升。

Optimal Planning and Machine Learning for Responsive Tracking and Enhanced Forecasting of Wildfires using a Spacecraft Constellation

  • 通过混合整数规划优化卫星观测与数据回传调度,覆盖率达98%-100%。
  • 机器学习预测相关性比现有方法高40%以上,烧毁区域图生成更准。
  • 适用于消防决策支持,延迟仅6-30小时,适合紧急响应场景。

本文提出一种新型运行概念,结合最优规划与机器学习技术,利用航天器星座收集前所未有的野火监测空间数据,处理后生成新的或增强的野火危险性与蔓延监测产品,并融入现有消防决策支持系统,满足时效性要求。研究基于NASA CYGNSS任务,该星座由被动微波接收器组成,可在云层和烟雾遮蔽下测量全球导航卫星信号反射。规划器采用混合整数规划模型,实现所有卫星观测与下行链路的联合调度,快速获得98%-100%可用观测机会。基于机器学习的火情预测相比现有先进方法,与真实情况的相关性提升超过40%。以2024年得克萨斯州烟屋溪火灾及2025年加州火灾为例,首次获得高分辨率的CYGNSS活跃火点数据。利用机器学习对活跃火数据生成烧毁区域图(BAM),并使用神经网络将BAM同化至NASA天气研究与预报模型中,实现火势扩散广播,为首创成果。首次将CYGNSS获取的土壤湿度数据与烧毁区域图整合进美国地质调查局(USGS)火险地图。在机器学习烧毁预测中引入CYGNSS数据使准确率提升13%,引入高分辨率数据进一步提高召回率15%。整个工作流程预期延迟为6-30小时,优于当前数天级交付时间。所有组件均展示出计算可扩展性和全球普适性,兼顾边缘效率与低延迟,具备可持续性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a novel concept of operations using optimal planning methods and machine learning (ML) to collect spaceborne data that is unprecedented for monitoring wildfires, process it to create new or enhanced products in the context of wildfire danger or spread monitoring, and assimilate them to improve existing, wildfire decision support tools delivered to firefighters within latency appropriate for time-critical applications. The concept is studied with respect to NASA's CYGNSS Mission, a constellation of passive microwave receivers that measure specular GNSS-R reflections despite clouds and smoke. Our planner uses a Mixed Integer Program formulation to schedule joint observation data collection and downlink for all satellites. Optimal solutions are found quickly that collect 98-100% of available observation opportunities. ML-based fire predictions that drive the planner objective are greater than 40% more correlated with ground truth than existing state-of-art. The presented case study on the TX Smokehouse Creek fire in 2024 and LA fires in 2025 represents the first high-resolution data collected by CYGNSS of active fires. Creation of Burnt Area Maps (BAM) using ML on data from active fires and BAM assimilation into NASA's Weather Research and Forecasting Model using neural nets to broadcast fire spread are novel outcomes. BAM and CYGNSS obtained soil moisture are integrated for the first time into USGS fire danger maps. Inclusion of CYGNSS data in ML-based burn predictions boosts accuracy by 13%, and inclusion of high-resolution data boosts ML recall by another 15%. The proposed workflow has an expected latency of 6-30h, improving on the current delivery time of multiple days. All components in the proposed concept are shown to be computationally scalable and globally generalizable, with sustainability considerations such as edge efficiency and low latency on small devices.

野火预测卫星星座机器学习实时监控

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