构建首个大尺度气象多模态数据集与模型,实现严重天气事件自动预测。
MeteorPred: A Meteorological Multimodal Large Model and Dataset for Severe Weather Event Prediction
- 设计可处理4维气象数据的多模态大模型,动态融合时空垂直维度特征。
- 在42万+样本数据集上实现跨模态精准匹配,显著提升严重天气识别能力。
- 适合气象预警、智能防灾领域研究者及系统开发者使用。
及时准确地预测严重天气事件对早期预警和下游决策至关重要。当前预测仍依赖耗时且主观的人工分析,端到端的“人工智能气象站”系统虽在兴起,但面临三大挑战:(1)严重天气样本稀缺;(2)高维气象数据与文本预警间对齐不完善;(3)现有多模态语言模型难以有效处理高维气象输入或捕捉其复杂时空依赖。为此,我们提出MP-Bench,首个大规模严重天气事件预测多模态数据集,包含421,363对多年原始气象数据与对应文本描述,覆盖多种严重天气场景。在此基础上,我们开发了气象多模态大模型(MMLM),可直接输入4维气象数据,并通过三个即插即用的自适应融合模块,实现时间序列、气压层与空间维度的动态特征提取与整合。在MP-Bench上的大量实验表明,MMLM在多个任务中表现优异,展现出强大的严重天气理解能力,是迈向自动化AI驱动天气预测系统的关键一步。代码与数据集将公开发布。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Timely and accurate forecasts of severe weather events are essential for early warning and for constraining downstream analysis and decision-making. Since severe weather events prediction still depends on subjective, time-consuming expert interpretation, end-to-end "AI weather station" systems are emerging but face three major challenges: (1) scarcity of severe weather event samples; (2) imperfect alignment between high-dimensional meteorological data and textual warnings; (3) current multimodal language models cannot effectively process high-dimensional meteorological inputs or capture their complex spatiotemporal dependencies. To address these challenges, we introduce MP-Bench, the first large-scale multimodal dataset for severe weather events prediction, comprising 421,363 pairs of raw multi-year meteorological data and corresponding text caption, covering a wide range of severe weather scenarios. On top of this dataset, we develop a Meteorology Multimodal Large Model (MMLM) that directly ingests 4D meteorological inputs. In addition, it is designed to accommodate the unique characteristics of 4D meteorological data flow, incorporating three plug-and-play adaptive fusion modules that enable dynamic feature extraction and integration across temporal sequences, vertical pressure layers, and spatial dimensions. Extensive experiments on MP-Bench show that MMLM achieves strong performance across multiple tasks, demonstrating effective severe weather understanding and representing a key step toward automated, AI-driven severe weather events forecasting systems. Our source code and dataset will be made publicly available.
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