arXiv:2508.07016cs.LGcs.IR2025-08

通过滞后相关性提升时间序列预测精度,兼顾效果与效率。

TLCCSP: A Scalable Framework for Enhancing Time Series Forecasting with Time-Lagged Cross-Correlations

  • 用动态时间规整捕捉序列间的时滞相关性
  • 对比学习编码器使计算提速99%,误差降低超16%
  • 适合需要实时高精度预测的气象、金融等场景

时间序列预测在气象、金融和房地产等领域至关重要,准确预测支持决策与风险控制。尽管深度学习模型提升了预测能力,但常忽视相关序列间的时滞相关性,而这类关系对捕捉复杂时序依赖至关重要。为此,我们提出基于时滞交叉相关性的序列预测框架TLCCSP,通过序列移位动态时间规整(SSDTW)捕获滞后相关性,并采用对比学习编码器(CLE)高效近似SSDTW距离。在气象、金融和房地产数据集上的实验表明,该框架显著提升预测精度:气象数据上SSDTW使均方误差(MSE)降低16.01%,CLE进一步降低17.88%;股票数据上,SSDTW减少MSE 9.95%,CLE再降6.13%;房地产数据上,二者分别降低21.29%和8.62%。此外,对比学习将SSDTW计算时间缩短约99%,确保框架在多任务中可扩展且适用于实时预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is critical across various domains, such as weather, finance and real estate forecasting, as accurate forecasts support informed decision-making and risk mitigation. While recent deep learning models have improved predictive capabilities, they often overlook time-lagged cross-correlations between related sequences, which are crucial for capturing complex temporal relationships. To address this, we propose the Time-Lagged Cross-Correlations-based Sequence Prediction framework (TLCCSP), which enhances forecasting accuracy by effectively integrating time-lagged cross-correlated sequences. TLCCSP employs the Sequence Shifted Dynamic Time Warping (SSDTW) algorithm to capture lagged correlations and a contrastive learning-based encoder to efficiently approximate SSDTW distances. Experimental results on weather, finance and real estate time series datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework. On the weather dataset, SSDTW reduces mean squared error (MSE) by 16.01% compared with single-sequence methods, while the contrastive learning encoder (CLE) further decreases MSE by 17.88%. On the stock dataset, SSDTW achieves a 9.95% MSE reduction, and CLE reduces it by 6.13%. For the real estate dataset, SSDTW and CLE reduce MSE by 21.29% and 8.62%, respectively. Additionally, the contrastive learning approach decreases SSDTW computational time by approximately 99%, ensuring scalability and real-time applicability across multiple time series forecasting tasks.

时间序列滞后相关对比学习预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。