arXiv:2508.07085cs.LG2025-08被引 4

用混合模型提前发现数据分布变化,提升实时机器学习稳定性。

Improving Real-Time Concept Drift Detection using a Hybrid Transformer-Autoencoder Framework

  • 结合Transformer与自编码器捕捉时间动态,实现在线检测。
  • 在10个时间段的航班数据中,较传统方法更早、更敏感地识别漂移。
  • 适合需实时监控模型性能的工业应用,如金融风控、推荐系统。

在实际机器学习中,概念漂移(数据分布的渐进或突变)会显著降低模型性能。现有检测方法如统计检验或基于重构的模型多为被动响应,对早期漂移不敏感。本文提出一种融合Transformer与自编码器的混合框架,以建模复杂的时间动态并实现在线漂移检测。我们设计了独特的可信度评分(Trust Score),综合统计指标(如PSI、JSD)、重构误差、预测不确定性、规则违反情况及分类器错误趋势等信号。在包含10个时间片段的时序航班乘客数据集上,通过逐步注入漂移(如后期批次机票价格重排),实验表明该模型在不同阈值下均优于基线方法,具备更高灵敏度与可解释性,为实际机器学习中的实时漂移检测提供了可靠管道。结果支持该模型在更早阶段检测到漂移,并有效降低错误率与逻辑违规。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In applied machine learning, concept drift, which is either gradual or abrupt changes in data distribution, can significantly reduce model performance. Typical detection methods,such as statistical tests or reconstruction-based models,are generally reactive and not very sensitive to early detection. Our study proposes a hybrid framework consisting of Transformers and Autoencoders to model complex temporal dynamics and provide online drift detection. We create a distinct Trust Score methodology, which includes signals on (1) statistical and reconstruction-based drift metrics, more specifically, PSI, JSD, Transformer-AE error, (2) prediction uncertainty, (3) rules violations, and (4) trend of classifier error aligned with the combined metrics defined by the Trust Score. Using a time sequenced airline passenger data set with synthetic drift, our proposed model allows for a better detection of drift using as a whole and at different detection thresholds for both sensitivity and interpretability compared to baseline methods and provides a strong pipeline for drift detection in real time for applied machine learning. We evaluated performance using a time-sequenced airline passenger dataset having the gradually injected stimulus of drift in expectations,e.g. permuted ticket prices in later batches, broken into 10 time segments [1].In the data, our results support that the Transformation-Autoencoder detected drift earlier and with more sensitivity than the autoencoders commonly used in the literature, and provided improved modeling over more error rates and logical violations. Therefore, a robust framework was developed to reliably monitor concept drift.

概念漂移实时检测时间序列可信度评分

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