用新框架让大模型更准预测时间序列,解决模式差异和数据类型不匹配问题。
Adapting LLMs to Time Series Forecasting via Temporal Heterogeneity Modeling and Representation Alignment
- 分段建模多元时间序列的复杂模式,让不同时间段各显其能。
- 在7个真实数据集上平均误差降低11%,比现有方法更准更快。
- 无需人工设计提示词,适合想用大模型做时序预测的研究者。
近期研究表明,大语言模型(LLMs)可有效适配时间序列预测,展现出超越自然语言任务的潜力。然而,其性能受限于两个核心挑战:时间模式的固有异质性,以及连续数值信号与离散语言表征之间的模态差距。本文提出统一框架TALON(Temporal-heterogeneity And Language-Oriented Network),通过建模时间异质性和促进表征对齐来提升基于LLM的预测能力。具体地,设计异质时间编码器将多变量时间序列划分为结构一致的片段,实现对多样化时间模式的局部专家建模;同时引入表征对齐模块,将时间特征投影至适配LLM的表示空间,弥合模态差距,使时间序列更易被大模型理解,且推理时无需手工提示。在七个真实世界基准上的实验表明,TALON在所有数据集上均表现优异,平均均方误差较最新方法最高降低11%,同时保持更高效率。结果证明,在适配大模型进行时间序列预测时,结合模式感知建模与表征级对齐至关重要。代码已公开:https://github.com/syrGitHub/TALON。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent advances have demonstrated that Large Language Models (LLMs) can be effectively adapted for time series forecasting, revealing strong potential beyond natural language tasks. However, their performance remains constrained by two fundamental challenges: the inherent heterogeneity of temporal patterns and the modality gap between continuous numerical signals and discrete language representations. In this work, we propose \textbf{TALON} (Temporal-heterogeneity And Language-Oriented Network), a unified framework that enhances LLM-based forecasting by modeling temporal heterogeneity and promoting representation alignment. Specifically, we design a Heterogeneous Temporal Encoder that partitions multivariate time series into structurally coherent segments, enabling localized expert modeling across diverse temporal patterns. To bridge the modality gap, we introduce a Representation Alignment Module that projects temporal features toward LLM-compatible representations, making time series more amenable to LLMs and thereby unlocking their modeling potential, while eliminating the need for handcrafted prompts during inference. Extensive experiments on seven real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TALON achieves superior performance across all datasets, with average MSE improvements of up to 11% over recent state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining higher efficiency. These results underscore the effectiveness of incorporating both pattern-aware modeling and representation-level alignment when adapting LLMs for time series forecasting. The code is available at: https://github.com/syrGitHub/TALON.
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