用图结构学习捕捉气象观测的空间关联,提升天气预报精度
Discovering Spatial Correlations of Earth Observations for weather forecasting by using Graph Structure Learning
- 通过自适应图结构学习建模动态空间关系
- 在东亚数据上实现15%的RMSE降低
- 适合需要高精度气象预测的研究者与应用方
本研究旨在通过发现地球观测与大气状态之间的空间相关性,提升天气预测精度。现有数值天气预报(NWP)系统在固定网格点上预测未来大气状态,依赖历史状态和新获取的地球观测数据。然而,观测位置的移动及周围气象背景导致复杂的动态空间相关性,传统NWP难以捕捉,因其依赖严格的统计与物理公式。为应对这一挑战,本文采用具有结构学习能力的时空图神经网络(STGNNs)。但结构学习存在信息丢失与过平滑问题,因过度生成边。为此,我们通过自适应确定节点度并考虑网格点与观测点间的空间距离来调控边采样。在真实东亚大气状态与观测数据上验证了所提方法(CloudNine-v2),相较于现有STGNN模型,最高实现15%的均方根误差(RMSE)下降。即使在高大气变率区域,CloudNine-v2也持续优于含与不含结构学习的基线模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at fixed locations, which are called NWP grid points, by analyzing previous atmospheric states and newly acquired Earth observations. However, the shifting locations of observations and the surrounding meteorological context induce complex, dynamic spatial correlations that are difficult for traditional NWP systems to capture, since they rely on strict statistical and physical formulations. To handle complicated spatial correlations, which change dynamically, we employ a spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) with structure learning. However, structure learning has an inherent limitation that this can cause structural information loss and over-smoothing problem by generating excessive edges. To solve this problem, we regulate edge sampling by adaptively determining node degrees and considering the spatial distances between NWP grid points and observations. We validated the effectiveness of the proposed method (CloudNine-v2) using real-world atmospheric state and observation data from East Asia, achieving up to 15\% reductions in RMSE over existing STGNN models. Even in areas with high atmospheric variability, CloudNine-v2 consistently outperformed baselines with and without structure learning.
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