让深度模型自动匹配不同时间模式,提升非平稳数据预测精度
Adaptive Fine-Tuning via Pattern Specialization for Deep Time Series Forecasting
- 用聚类提取时间序列的典型模式,为每类训练专用模型
- 推理时根据最新数据选最匹配的专用模型,性能显著提升
- 可适配多种模型架构,特别适合变化频繁的数据场景
时间序列预测在非平稳环境中面临巨大挑战,因底层模式随时间演变。本文提出一种新框架,通过专业化模型自适应与选择来提升深度神经网络(DNN)性能。首先在历史数据上离线训练一个基础DNN;随后将保留的验证子集分段,提取并聚类主要模式,识别出不同状态区间。针对每个聚类,对基础DNN进行微调,生成捕捉特定模式特征的专用版本。推理阶段,将最新输入与各聚类中心比对,依据最近相似度选择对应微调模型部署。此外,方法还集成概念漂移检测机制,以识别并响应由非平稳行为引发的新模式。该框架可推广至多种DNN架构,在GluonTS库中实现的传统DNN及先进架构上均取得显著性能提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting poses significant challenges in non-stationary environments where underlying patterns evolve over time. In this work, we propose a novel framework that enhances deep neural network (DNN) performance by leveraging specialized model adaptation and selection. Initially, a base DNN is trained offline on historical time series data. A reserved validation subset is then segmented to extract and cluster the most dominant patterns within the series, thereby identifying distinct regimes. For each identified cluster, the base DNN is fine-tuned to produce a specialized version that captures unique pattern characteristics. At inference, the most recent input is matched against the cluster centroids, and the corresponding fine-tuned version is deployed based on the closest similarity measure. Additionally, our approach integrates a concept drift detection mechanism to identify and adapt to emerging patterns caused by non-stationary behavior. The proposed framework is generalizable across various DNN architectures and has demonstrated significant performance gains on both traditional DNNs and recent advanced architectures implemented in the GluonTS library.
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