融合遥感与水质数据,提升多站点长期水质预测精度。
XFMNet: Decoding Cross-Site and Nonstationary Water Patterns via Stepwise Multimodal Fusion for Long-Term Water Quality Forecasting
- 分步融合遥感降水图与水质时序数据,增强空间上下文理解。
- 在多站点真实数据上,相比顶尖模型误差降低12.3%~18.7%。
- 适合环境监测、水利管理等领域研究者参考使用。
长期时间序列预测对环境监测至关重要,但水质预测仍面临周期复杂、非平稳性及生态因素引发的突变等挑战。这些挑战在多站点场景中尤为突出,需同时建模时空动态。为此,我们提出XFMNet,一种分步多模态融合网络,通过遥感降水图像为河网提供空间与环境上下文。XFMNet首先通过自适应下采样对齐水质序列与遥感输入的时间分辨率,再采用局部自适应分解分离趋势与周期成分。交叉注意力门控融合模块动态整合时间模式与空间生态信息,提升对非平稳性和站点特异性异常的鲁棒性。通过渐进式递归融合,模型捕捉长期趋势与短期波动。在真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,相比现有最先进基线,性能显著提升,验证了XFMNet在分布式时间序列预测中的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-term time-series forecasting is critical for environmental monitoring, yet water quality prediction remains challenging due to complex periodicity, nonstationarity, and abrupt fluctuations induced by ecological factors. These challenges are further amplified in multi-site scenarios that require simultaneous modeling of temporal and spatial dynamics. To tackle this, we introduce XFMNet, a stepwise multimodal fusion network that integrates remote sensing precipitation imagery to provide spatial and environmental context in river networks. XFMNet first aligns temporal resolutions between water quality series and remote sensing inputs via adaptive downsampling, followed by locally adaptive decomposition to disentangle trend and cycle components. A cross-attention gated fusion module dynamically integrates temporal patterns with spatial and ecological cues, enhancing robustness to nonstationarity and site-specific anomalies. Through progressive and recursive fusion, XFMNet captures both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate substantial improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of XFMNet for spatially distributed time series prediction.
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