arXiv:2508.08281cs.LGcs.AI2025-08被引 3

通过多粒度时空特征互补,实现高精度在线蜂窝流量预测。

Multi-grained spatial-temporal feature complementarity for accurate online cellular traffic prediction

  • 分粗粒度时序注意力与细粒度空间注意力,融合趋势与局部关联。
  • 在四个真实数据集上,均优于11个先进基线模型。
  • 支持在线学习,实时检测概念漂移,适合持续预测场景。

从电信数据中挖掘的知识可促进对网络动态和用户行为的主动理解,进而帮助服务提供商优化蜂窝流量调度与资源分配。然而,电信行业仍高度依赖人工专家干预。现有研究多聚焦于充分探索时空相关性,却常忽略由电信服务突发性与间歇性塑造的流量内在特性。此外,概念漂移给持续蜂窝预测任务带来显著挑战。为此,本文提出基于多粒度时空特征互补(MGSTC)的在线蜂窝流量预测方法,旨在实现实际连续预测场景下的高精度预测。具体而言,MGSTC将历史数据分块处理,利用粗粒度时序注意力为预测期提供趋势参考;随后通过细粒度空间注意力捕捉网络单元间的详细关联,实现对已建立趋势的局部精修。多粒度时空特征的互补性促进了有价值信息的有效传递。为满足持续预测需求,本文设计了在线学习策略,可实时检测概念漂移并及时切换至相应参数更新阶段。在四个真实世界数据集上的实验表明,MGSTC始终优于11个最先进的基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Knowledge discovered from telecom data can facilitate proactive understanding of network dynamics and user behaviors, which in turn empowers service providers to optimize cellular traffic scheduling and resource allocation. Nevertheless, the telecom industry still heavily relies on manual expert intervention. Existing studies have been focused on exhaustively explore the spatial-temporal correlations. However, they often overlook the underlying characteristics of cellular traffic, which are shaped by the sporadic and bursty nature of telecom services. Additionally, concept drift creates substantial obstacles to maintaining satisfactory accuracy in continuous cellular forecasting tasks. To resolve these problems, we put forward an online cellular traffic prediction method grounded in Multi-Grained Spatial-Temporal feature Complementarity (MGSTC). The proposed method is devised to achieve high-precision predictions in practical continuous forecasting scenarios. Concretely, MGSTC segments historical data into chunks and employs the coarse-grained temporal attention to offer a trend reference for the prediction horizon. Subsequently, fine-grained spatial attention is utilized to capture detailed correlations among network elements, which enables localized refinement of the established trend. The complementarity of these multi-grained spatial-temporal features facilitates the efficient transmission of valuable information. To accommodate continuous forecasting needs, we implement an online learning strategy that can detect concept drift in real-time and promptly switch to the appropriate parameter update stage. Experiments carried out on four real-world datasets demonstrate that MGSTC outperforms eleven state-of-the-art baselines consistently.

流量预测时空建模在线学习蜂窝网络

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