arXiv:2508.08551cs.LGcs.AI2025-08被引 13

提出UQGNN模型,实现多变量时空预测的精度与不确定性量化双提升。

UQGNN: Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Neural Networks for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Prediction

  • 构建交互感知的时空嵌入模块,捕捉多源城市现象间的复杂关联。
  • 在四个真实数据集上,预测准确率和不确定性评估均提升5%以上。
  • 适合城市规划、交通优化等需可靠预测结果的场景使用。

时空预测在城市规划、交通优化、灾害响应和疫情管控等实际应用中至关重要。近年来,深度学习模型在该领域取得显著进展,但多数模型为确定性预测,仅输出期望均值而无法量化不确定性,导致结果不可靠。尽管已有研究引入概率模型,但通常仅针对单一现象(如出租车、自行车、犯罪或交通事故),忽略了异构城市现象间的内在关联。为此,本文提出一种新型带不确定性量化的图神经网络——UQGNN,用于多变量时空预测。UQGNN包含两项核心创新:(i) 交互感知时空嵌入模块,融合多变量扩散图卷积与交互感知时间卷积,有效捕捉复杂的时空交互模式;(ii) 多变量概率预测模块,可同时估计期望均值与对应不确定性。在深圳、纽约和芝加哥的四个真实多变量时空数据集上进行的大量实验表明,UQGNN在预测精度与不确定性量化方面均持续优于现有最优基线。例如,在深圳数据集上,其预测准确率与不确定性量化性能均提升5%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by developing advanced deep learning models for spatiotemporal prediction. However, most existing models are deterministic, i.e., predicting only the expected mean values without quantifying uncertainty, leading to potentially unreliable and inaccurate outcomes. While recent studies have introduced probabilistic models to quantify uncertainty, they typically focus on a single phenomenon (e.g., taxi, bike, crime, or traffic crashes), thereby neglecting the inherent correlations among heterogeneous urban phenomena. To address the research gap, we propose a novel Graph Neural Network with Uncertainty Quantification, termed UQGNN for multivariate spatiotemporal prediction. UQGNN introduces two key innovations: (i) an Interaction-aware Spatiotemporal Embedding Module that integrates a multivariate diffusion graph convolutional network and an interaction-aware temporal convolutional network to effectively capture complex spatial and temporal interaction patterns, and (ii) a multivariate probabilistic prediction module designed to estimate both expected mean values and associated uncertainties. Extensive experiments on four real-world multivariate spatiotemporal datasets from Shenzhen, New York City, and Chicago demonstrate that UQGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. For example, on the Shenzhen dataset, UQGNN achieves a 5% improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

图神经网络时空预测不确定性量化

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