arXiv:2508.08573cs.CYcs.AI2025-08AAAI被引 6

研究发现,精准识别高风险住户能显著提升房屋驱逐预防效率。

Who Pays the RENT? Implications of Spatial Inequality for Prediction-Based Allocation Policies

  • 用马洛斯模型分析风险空间分布对精准施策的影响
  • 即使在高度隔离区域,个体靶向仍可多覆盖40%以上高危家庭
  • 提醒部署AI时需考虑成本来源与风险集中度差异

基于美国某中等城市法院记录数据,本研究构建了以马洛斯模型为基础的简化框架,探讨风险空间分布对门对门干预政策效果的影响。提出相对非靶向效率(RENT)指标,比较个体靶向与社区层面策略在防止租户被驱逐中的表现。结果显示,在高风险家庭空间聚集程度较高的情况下,个体靶向策略仍能显著提升高风险住户的触达率,甚至在高度分化的都市区实现超过40%的覆盖率提升。研究指出,此前文献中的矛盾结论源于未区分部署成本来源及真实风险分布与模型假设间的差异。该成果为社会服务中人工智能系统的地理适配部署提供重要依据。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

AI-powered scarce resource allocation policies rely on predictions to target either specific individuals (e.g., high-risk) or settings (e.g., neighborhoods). Recent research on individual-level targeting demonstrates conflicting results; some models show that targeting is not useful when inequality is high, while other work demonstrates potential benefits. To study and reconcile this apparent discrepancy, we develop a stylized framework based on the Mallows model to understand how the spatial distribution of inequality affects the effectiveness of door-to-door outreach policies. We introduce the RENT (Relative Efficiency of Non-Targeting) metric, which we use to assess the effectiveness of targeting approaches compared with neighborhood-based approaches in preventing tenant eviction when high-risk households are more versus less spatially concentrated. We then calibrate the model parameters to eviction court records collected in a medium-sized city in the USA. Results demonstrate considerable gains in the number of high-risk households canvassed through individually targeted policies, even in a highly segregated metro area with concentrated risks of eviction. We conclude that apparent discrepancies in the prior literature can be reconciled by considering 1) the source of deployment costs and 2) the observed versus modeled concentrations of risk. Our results inform the deployment of AI-based solutions in social service provision that account for particular applications and geographies.

资源分配社会公平空间分析机器学习应用

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。