用图神经网络+修正器,提升城市公交轨迹预测精度。
GSMT: Graph Fusion and Spatiotemporal TaskCorrection for Multi-Bus Trajectory Prediction
- 融合动态公交与静态站点信息,分两阶段预测轨迹。
- 在吉隆坡真实数据集上,短/长期预测均优于现有方法。
- 适合交通管理、智能调度等实际应用场景。
准确预测公交车轨迹对智能交通系统至关重要,尤其在发展中国家多依赖车载GPS数据的背景下。针对此问题,我们提出GSMT模型,结合图注意力网络(GAT)与序列到序列循环神经网络(RNN),并引入任务修正器,从大规模轨迹数据中提取复杂行为模式。该修正器通过聚类历史轨迹识别不同运动模式,并对GAT与RNN生成的初步预测进行精细化调整。GSMT通过嵌入式混合网络融合动态公交信息与静态站点信息,实现多节点公交轨迹预测,尤其适用于复杂城市交通环境下的密集运行场景。在马来西亚吉隆坡的真实数据集上实验表明,该方法在短期与长期轨迹预测任务中均显著优于现有方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate trajectory prediction for buses is crucial in intelligent transportation systems, particularly within urban environments. In developing regions where access to multimodal data is limited, relying solely on onboard GPS data remains indispensable despite inherent challenges. To address this problem, we propose GSMT, a hybrid model that integrates a Graph Attention Network (GAT) with a sequence-to-sequence Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and incorporates a task corrector capable of extracting complex behavioral patterns from large-scale trajectory data. The task corrector clusters historical trajectories to identify distinct motion patterns and fine-tunes the predictions generated by the GAT and RNN. Specifically, GSMT fuses dynamic bus information and static station information through embedded hybrid networks to perform trajectory prediction, and applies the task corrector for secondary refinement after the initial predictions are generated. This two-stage approach enables multi-node trajectory prediction among buses operating in dense urban traffic environments under complex conditions. Experiments conducted on a real-world dataset from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing approaches, achieving superior performance in both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction tasks.
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