arXiv:2508.09527cs.LG2025-08被引 4

提出可解释的时序图神经网络,提升流程预测准确性与透明度。

Time-Aware and Transition-Semantic Graph Neural Networks for Interpretable Predictive Business Process Monitoring

  • 构建动态时间窗口,聚焦相关历史事件,抑制噪声干扰。
  • 融合转移类型语义,增强对结构模糊流程的推理能力。
  • 支持多层级可视化,适合需要可解释性的业务流程分析者。

预测性业务流程监控(PBPM)旨在基于历史事件日志预测正在进行案例的未来事件。尽管图神经网络(GNN)适合捕捉流程数据中的结构依赖关系,现有基于GNN的PBPM模型仍不完善:多数依赖短前缀子图或全局架构,忽略时序相关性与转移语义。本文提出统一、可解释的GNN框架,在三个关键维度上推动进展:首先,对比基于前缀的图卷积网络(GCN)与完整轨迹的图注意力网络(GAT),量化局部与全局建模的性能差距;其次,引入新颖的时间衰减注意力机制,构建以预测为中心的动态窗口,强化时序相关历史,抑制噪声;第三,将转移类型语义嵌入边特征,实现对结构模糊轨迹的细粒度推理。模型包含多层级可解释模块,提供多样化的注意力可视化。在五个基准数据集上评估,所提模型在无需每数据集调参的情况下,达到具有竞争力的Top-k准确率与DL分数。通过弥合架构、时序与语义缺口,本工作为PBPM中的下一事件预测提供了鲁棒、通用且可解释的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predictive Business Process Monitoring (PBPM) aims to forecast future events in ongoing cases based on historical event logs. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are well suited to capture structural dependencies in process data, existing GNN-based PBPM models remain underdeveloped. Most rely either on short prefix subgraphs or global architectures that overlook temporal relevance and transition semantics. We propose a unified, interpretable GNN framework that advances the state of the art along three key axes. First, we compare prefix-based Graph Convolutional Networks(GCNs) and full trace Graph Attention Networks(GATs) to quantify the performance gap between localized and global modeling. Second, we introduce a novel time decay attention mechanism that constructs dynamic, prediction-centered windows, emphasizing temporally relevant history and suppressing noise. Third, we embed transition type semantics into edge features to enable fine grained reasoning over structurally ambiguous traces. Our architecture includes multilevel interpretability modules, offering diverse visualizations of attention behavior. Evaluated on five benchmarks, the proposed models achieve competitive Top-k accuracy and DL scores without per-dataset tuning. By addressing architectural, temporal, and semantic gaps, this work presents a robust, generalizable, and explainable solution for next event prediction in PBPM.

流程预测图神经网络可解释性时序建模

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