arXiv:2508.09747cs.LG2025-08

用动态变化特征预测生物年龄,提升长期预判准确率。

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Biological Age and its Longitudinal Drivers

  • 提取生物标志物变化速率作为新特征,捕捉衰老动态过程。
  • 模型在后续时间点预测准确率达R²=0.515(男)和0.498(女)。
  • 适合关注个性化抗衰老干预的临床研究与健康管理人群。

预测个体衰老轨迹是预防医学与生物信息学的核心挑战。尽管机器学习可基于生物标志物预测出生日年龄,但往往难以捕捉衰老过程的动态性。本文利用两个时间阶段(2019–2020 和 2021–2022)的纵向队列数据,开发并验证了机器学习流程。仅使用静态横断面生物标志物的模型在跨时间点泛化时表现有限。通过构建反映关键生物标志物随时间变化率(斜率)的新特征,显著提升了模型性能。最终的LightGBM模型在第一波数据上训练,成功预测第二波数据中的年龄,男性R²=0.515,女性R²=0.498,显著优于传统线性模型及其他树模型。SHAP分析显示,所设计的斜率特征为最重要预测因子之一,表明健康轨迹比静态健康快照更能决定生物年龄。本框架为动态追踪患者健康轨迹、实现早期干预与个性化防衰老策略提供了基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting an individual's aging trajectory is a central challenge in preventative medicine and bioinformatics. While machine learning models can predict chronological age from biomarkers, they often fail to capture the dynamic, longitudinal nature of the aging process. In this work, we developed and validated a machine learning pipeline to predict age using a longitudinal cohort with data from two distinct time periods (2019-2020 and 2021-2022). We demonstrate that a model using only static, cross-sectional biomarkers has limited predictive power when generalizing to future time points. However, by engineering novel features that explicitly capture the rate of change (slope) of key biomarkers over time, we significantly improved model performance. Our final LightGBM model, trained on the initial wave of data, successfully predicted age in the subsequent wave with high accuracy ($R^2 = 0.515$ for males, $R^2 = 0.498$ for females), significantly outperforming both traditional linear models and other tree-based ensembles. SHAP analysis of our successful model revealed that the engineered slope features were among the most important predictors, highlighting that an individual's health trajectory, not just their static health snapshot, is a key determinant of biological age. Our framework paves the way for clinical tools that dynamically track patient health trajectories, enabling early intervention and personalized prevention strategies for age-related diseases.

生物年龄机器学习纵向数据健康轨迹

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