arXiv:2508.09753cs.LG2025-08被引 1

提出三维度专业化专家混合模型,提升多区域电力负荷预测精度

TriForecaster: A Mixture of Experts Framework for Multi-Region Electric Load Forecasting with Tri-dimensional Specialization

  • 采用多任务学习与专家混合框架,分区域、上下文和时间维度动态分配专家
  • 在四个真实数据集上平均误差降低22.4%,显著优于现有方法
  • 已落地应用支持17城超1.1亿人,日用电量超100吉瓦时的实时预测

电力负荷预测对电网运行、规划与决策至关重要。智能电网与智能电表的发展提供了从家庭到变电站及城市多个粒度的高质量负荷数据。受中国东部省份多城市负荷模式相似性启发,本文聚焦多区域电力负荷预测(MRELF)问题,目标是实现大区域内多个子区域的短时负荷精准预测。我们识别出三个挑战:区域差异、上下文差异和时间差异。为此,提出TriForecaster框架,基于多任务学习中的专家混合(MoE)机制,设计区域混合作用层(RegionMixer)和上下文-时间专用化层(CTSpecializer),实现跨区域、上下文和时间维度的专家动态协作与专业化。在四个具有不同粒度的真实MRELF数据集上评估,TriForecaster平均预测误差降低22.4%,验证了其灵活性与普适性。尤其在东部中国eForecaster平台部署中,成功为17个城市提供城市级短时负荷预测,服务人口超1.1亿,日均用电量超过100吉瓦时。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Electric load forecasting is pivotal for power system operation, planning and decision-making. The rise of smart grids and meters has provided more detailed and high-quality load data at multiple levels of granularity, from home to bus and cities. Motivated by similar patterns of loads across different cities in a province in eastern China, in this paper we focus on the Multi-Region Electric Load Forecasting (MRELF) problem, targeting accurate short-term load forecasting for multiple sub-regions within a large region. We identify three challenges for MRELF, including regional variation, contextual variation, and temporal variation. To address them, we propose TriForecaster, a new framework leveraging the Mixture of Experts (MoE) approach within a Multi-Task Learning (MTL) paradigm to overcome these challenges. TriForecaster features RegionMixer and Context-Time Specializer (CTSpecializer) layers, enabling dynamic cooperation and specialization of expert models across regional, contextual, and temporal dimensions. Based on evaluation on four real-world MRELF datasets with varied granularity, TriForecaster outperforms state-of-the-art models by achieving an average forecast error reduction of 22.4\%, thereby demonstrating its flexibility and broad applicability. In particular, the deployment of TriForecaster on the eForecaster platform in eastern China exemplifies its practical utility, effectively providing city-level, short-term load forecasts for 17 cities, supporting a population exceeding 110 million and daily electricity usage over 100 gigawatt-hours.

负荷预测专家混合多任务学习智能电网

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