arXiv:2508.10908physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-08被引 1

用AI构建能模拟海气耦合的全球海洋模型,提升气候预测能力

Data-driven global ocean model resolving ocean-atmosphere coupling dynamics

  • 基于视觉注意力对抗网络,融合局部卷积与迁移学习建模海洋流场
  • 准确复现赤道太平洋开尔文波和罗斯比波传播,捕捉风应力引发的垂直运动
  • 适合关注气候模拟、海洋动力学与深度学习应用的研究者

人工智能已显著提升全球天气预报的精度与效率,但在次季节以上时间尺度的预测中仍需依赖能够真实模拟大气强迫下复杂海洋响应的深度学习(DL)海-气耦合模型。本研究提出KIST-Ocean,一种基于U型视觉注意力对抗网络架构的全球三维海洋环流模型。该模型通过引入部分卷积、对抗训练和迁移学习,有效应对沿海区域复杂性及自回归模型中的预测分布漂移问题。全面评估表明,KIST-Ocean具备出色的海洋预测能力与计算效率。模型能准确再现热带太平洋中的开尔文波和罗斯比波传播,以及气旋与反气旋风应力引起的垂直运动,展现了其对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动等气候现象背后关键海-气耦合机制的刻画能力。这些结果增强了人们对基于深度学习的全球气象与气候模型的信心,并为拓展深度学习方法至更广泛的地球系统建模提供了可能,有望显著提升气候预测性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Artificial intelligence has advanced global weather forecasting, outperforming traditional numerical models in both accuracy and computational efficiency. Nevertheless, extending predictions beyond subseasonal timescales requires the development of deep learning (DL)-based ocean-atmosphere coupled models that can realistically simulate complex oceanic responses to atmospheric forcing. This study presents KIST-Ocean, a DL-based global three-dimensional ocean general circulation model using a U-shaped visual attention adversarial network architecture. KIST-Ocean integrates partial convolution, adversarial training, and transfer learning to address coastal complexity and predictive distribution drift in auto-regressive models. Comprehensive evaluations confirmed the model's robust ocean predictive skill and efficiency. Moreover, it accurately captures realistic ocean response, such as Kelvin and Rossby wave propagation in the tropical Pacific, and vertical motions induced by cyclonic and anticyclonic wind stress, demonstrating its ability to represent key ocean-atmosphere coupling mechanisms underlying climate phenomena, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. These findings reinforce confidence in DL-based global weather and climate models and their extending DL-based approaches to broader Earth system modeling, offering potential for enhancing climate prediction capabilities.

海洋模型海气耦合深度学习气候预测

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