用CNN-LSTM模型预测北京工业区6小时PM2.5浓度,精度优于传统方法。
Air Quality PM2.5 Index Prediction Model Based on CNN-LSTM
- 结合CNN提取空间特征与LSTM建模时间依赖,融合多变量气象数据。
- 在2010-2015年北京工业区数据上,6小时预测RMSE达5.236。
- 适合环境监测、污染预警系统,但计算资源需求高。
随着全球气候变化加剧,准确预测空气质量指标尤其是PM2.5浓度,在环境保护、公共健康和城市管理等领域日益重要。为此,本文提出一种基于卷积神经网络(CNN)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)混合架构的空气品质PM2.5指数预测模型。该模型有效结合了CNN对局部空间特征的提取能力与LSTM对时间序列数据中时间依赖性的建模能力。利用2010至2015年间北京某工业区采集的多变量小时级数据集——包括PM2.5浓度、温度、露点、气压、风向、风速及降水量——进行训练,以预测未来6小时内的平均PM2.5浓度。实验结果表明,该模型的均方根误差(RMSE)为5.236,在准确性和泛化能力方面均优于传统时间序列模型。这证明其在空气污染早期预警系统等实际应用中的强潜力。然而,由于多变量输入的复杂性,模型对计算资源要求较高,对多样化大气因素的处理能力仍有待优化。未来工作将聚焦于提升可扩展性,并拓展支持更复杂的多变量气象预测任务。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With the intensification of global climate change, accurate prediction of air quality indicators, especially PM2.5 concentration, has become increasingly important in fields such as environmental protection, public health, and urban management. To address this, we propose an air quality PM2.5 index prediction model based on a hybrid CNN-LSTM architecture. The model effectively combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) for local spatial feature extraction and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for modeling temporal dependencies in time series data. Using a multivariate dataset collected from an industrial area in Beijing between 2010 and 2015 -- which includes hourly records of PM2.5 concentration, temperature, dew point, pressure, wind direction, wind speed, and precipitation -- the model predicts the average PM2.5 concentration over 6-hour intervals. Experimental results show that the model achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.236, outperforming traditional time series models in both accuracy and generalization. This demonstrates its strong potential in real-world applications such as air pollution early warning systems. However, due to the complexity of multivariate inputs, the model demands high computational resources, and its ability to handle diverse atmospheric factors still requires optimization. Future work will focus on enhancing scalability and expanding support for more complex multivariate weather prediction tasks.
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