让交易模型自动识别市场状态,动态调整策略,提升加密货币交易表现。
RegimeNAS: Regime-Aware Differentiable Architecture Search With Theoretical Guarantees for Financial Trading
- 基于贝叶斯搜索空间与理论保证,实现可证明收敛的架构搜索。
- 引入波动率、趋势、区间三类动态模块,适配不同市场状态,误差降低80.3%。
- 融合市场特定惩罚与稳定性约束,适合高动态金融场景的模型设计。
我们提出RegimeNAS,一种专为增强加密货币交易性能而设计的可微分架构搜索框架,通过显式集成市场状态感知来应对高度动态金融环境中的静态深度学习模型局限。该框架包含三大创新:(1) 基于理论支撑的贝叶斯搜索空间,具备可证明收敛性;(2) 针对不同市场条件定制的动态激活神经模块(波动率、趋势、区间块);(3) 多目标损失函数,整合市场特定惩罚(如波动率匹配、状态转换平滑性)及数学强制的Lipschitz稳定性约束。市场状态识别采用多头注意力机制跨多个时间尺度进行,提升准确性与不确定性估计能力。在大量真实加密货币数据上的严格评估表明,RegimeNAS显著优于现有基准,相比最佳传统循环基线,平均绝对误差降低80.3%,且收敛速度更快(9轮对比50+轮)。消融实验与分状态分析证实各组件关键作用,尤其强调了状态感知适应机制的重要性。本工作强调将市场状态等领域知识直接嵌入架构搜索过程,以构建适用于复杂金融应用的鲁棒自适应模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce RegimeNAS, a novel differentiable architecture search framework specifically designed to enhance cryptocurrency trading performance by explicitly integrating market regime awareness. Addressing the limitations of static deep learning models in highly dynamic financial environments, RegimeNAS features three core innovations: (1) a theoretically grounded Bayesian search space optimizing architectures with provable convergence properties; (2) specialized, dynamically activated neural modules (Volatility, Trend, and Range blocks) tailored for distinct market conditions; and (3) a multi-objective loss function incorporating market-specific penalties (e.g., volatility matching, transition smoothness) alongside mathematically enforced Lipschitz stability constraints. Regime identification leverages multi-head attention across multiple timeframes for improved accuracy and uncertainty estimation. Rigorous empirical evaluation on extensive real-world cryptocurrency data demonstrates that RegimeNAS significantly outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, achieving an 80.3% Mean Absolute Error reduction compared to the best traditional recurrent baseline and converging substantially faster (9 vs. 50+ epochs). Ablation studies and regime-specific analysis confirm the critical contribution of each component, particularly the regime-aware adaptation mechanism. This work underscores the imperative of embedding domain-specific knowledge, such as market regimes, directly within the NAS process to develop robust and adaptive models for challenging financial applications.
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