arXiv:2508.11504cs.LGcs.CY2025-08被引 1

用机器学习分析300万车祸数据,找出影响事故严重程度的关键因素。

Predicting and Explaining Traffic Crash Severity Through Crash Feature Selection

  • 结合AutoML与SHAP解释技术,筛选关键风险特征。
  • 模型在测试集上准确率达84.9%,17个核心特征被反复验证。
  • 环境与情境变量比酒驾等传统因素更关键,适合政策制定者参考。

机动车碰撞仍是全球伤害和死亡的主要原因,亟需数据驱动的方法来理解并减轻事故严重性。本研究构建了一个涵盖2017至2022年六年期间超过300万涉事人员的俄亥俄州交通事故数据集,聚合为超过230万条车辆级记录用于预测分析。主要贡献在于提出一种透明且可复现的方法,结合自动化机器学习(AutoML)与可解释人工智能(AI),识别并解析与严重事故相关的关键风险因素。通过JADBio AutoML平台构建预测模型,区分严重与非严重碰撞结果。模型在分层训练子集上进行严格特征选择,并使用SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)量化各特征贡献。最终采用岭逻辑回归模型,在训练集上达到85.6%的AUC-ROC,测试集达84.9%,17个特征被一致确认为最具影响力。这些特征涵盖人口、环境、车辆、人为及操作类别,包括地点类型、限速值、最低乘员年龄及事故前行为。值得注意的是,酒驾或药物滥用等传统重点因素在最终模型中影响力较弱,反而是环境与情境变量更为重要。强调方法严谨性与可解释性,该研究提供了一套可扩展框架,支持‘零伤亡愿景’的精准干预与数据驱动交通安全管理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Motor vehicle crashes remain a leading cause of injury and death worldwide, necessitating data-driven approaches to understand and mitigate crash severity. This study introduces a curated dataset of more than 3 million people involved in accidents in Ohio over six years (2017-2022), aggregated to more than 2.3 million vehicle-level records for predictive analysis. The primary contribution is a transparent and reproducible methodology that combines Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) to identify and interpret key risk factors associated with severe crashes. Using the JADBio AutoML platform, predictive models were constructed to distinguish between severe and non-severe crash outcomes. The models underwent rigorous feature selection across stratified training subsets, and their outputs were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to quantify the contribution of individual features. A final Ridge Logistic Regression model achieved an AUC-ROC of 85.6% on the training set and 84.9% on a hold-out test set, with 17 features consistently identified as the most influential predictors. Key features spanned demographic, environmental, vehicle, human, and operational categories, including location type, posted speed, minimum occupant age, and pre-crash action. Notably, certain traditionally emphasized factors, such as alcohol or drug impairment, were less influential in the final model compared to environmental and contextual variables. Emphasizing methodological rigor and interpretability over mere predictive performance, this study offers a scalable framework to support Vision Zero with aligned interventions and advanced data-informed traffic safety policy.

交通安全事故预测可解释AI数据驱动

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