专家预测人工智能2040-2050有50%可能达到人类水平，30年内或发展出超智能。
Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion
- 向四类专家发放问卷，收集对高阶人工智能时间表与风险的判断。
- 半数专家认为2040-2050间实现人类级AI概率达50%，2075年升至90%。
- 近三分之一专家担忧超智能发展将对人类造成严重负面影响。
部分领域对高阶机器智能和超智能人工智能在数十年内出现表示担忧，认为其可能给人类带来重大风险；另一些人则忽视或视之为科幻。为厘清真实观点分布，我们于2012/2013年设计简短问卷，面向四类专家进行调查。受访者中位估计显示，人类级人工智能在2040-2050年间实现的概率为50%，到2075年上升至90%。专家预计系统将在此后不到30年内进入超智能阶段。他们估计该发展对人类产生“糟糕”或“极其糟糕”影响的概率约为1/3。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
There is, in some quarters, concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high-level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time-frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be 'bad' or 'extremely bad' for humanity.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。