通过解耦多尺度时空特征,提升长期交通排放预测精度。
Scale-Disentangled spatiotemporal Modeling for Long-term Traffic Emission Forecasting
- 用柯普曼算子与小波分解解耦多尺度时空动态特征
- 在西安二环路数据集上达到当前最佳性能
- 适合城市空气污染管理与长期交通规划研究者
长期交通排放预测对城市空气质量综合管理至关重要。传统方法通过挖掘时空依赖构建图模型进行预测,但因时空多尺度特征纠缠,长期推断中易出现误差累积放大。为此,本文提出一种尺度解耦的时空建模框架(SDSTM),利用多尺度可预测性差异,实现不同尺度特征的分解与融合,同时保持独立性与互补性。模型首先基于柯普曼提升算子,将耦合的时空动力系统映射至无限维线性空间,并通过门控小波分解划定可预测边界;随后设计一种双流独立约束融合机制,引入交叉项损失动态优化双流预测结果,抑制相互干扰,提升长期预测精度。在西安二环路道路级交通排放数据集上的大量实验表明,该模型性能达当前最优水平。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-term traffic emission forecasting is crucial for the comprehensive management of urban air pollution. Traditional forecasting methods typically construct spatiotemporal graph models by mining spatiotemporal dependencies to predict emissions. However, due to the multi-scale entanglement of traffic emissions across time and space, these spatiotemporal graph modeling method tend to suffer from cascading error amplification during long-term inference. To address this issue, we propose a Scale-Disentangled Spatio-Temporal Modeling (SDSTM) framework for long-term traffic emission forecasting. It leverages the predictability differences across multiple scales to decompose and fuse features at different scales, while constraining them to remain independent yet complementary. Specifically, the model first introduces a dual-stream feature decomposition strategy based on the Koopman lifting operator. It lifts the scale-coupled spatiotemporal dynamical system into an infinite-dimensional linear space via Koopman operator, and delineates the predictability boundary using gated wavelet decomposition. Then a novel fusion mechanism is constructed, incorporating a dual-stream independence constraint based on cross-term loss to dynamically refine the dual-stream prediction results, suppress mutual interference, and enhance the accuracy of long-term traffic emission prediction. Extensive experiments conducted on a road-level traffic emission dataset within Xi'an's Second Ring Road demonstrate that the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance.
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