让时间序列预测能根据具体数据动态融合多模态信息。
UniCast: A Unified Framework for Instance-Conditioned Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting
- 用上下文感知的提示生成,实现每条数据的个性化多模态适配。
- 在多个基准上超越现有模型,平均提升显著,证明多模态动态控制有效。
- 适合需要融合文本、图像与时间序列的场景,如金融、医疗预测。
时间序列预测在金融、医疗和环境监测等领域至关重要。尽管时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)已取得成功,但现有方法多为单模态,依赖静态提示或固定融合策略,难以利用多模态上下文并适应实例级差异。本文提出UniCast,一种参数高效且统一的多模态时间序列预测框架,通过实例条件提示生成与动态模态路由实现自适应多模态融合。UniCast采用基于Transformer的上下文提炼器,从时序、视觉和文本输入中推断条件提示,实现无需更新预测主干的输入特定调整。为调控辅助模态的影响,引入模态路由机制,该机制基于当前时序状态估计模态相关性,选择性增强有用信号并抑制噪声。通过软提示微调集成冻结的TSFM,UniCast保持基础模型的泛化能力的同时,实现有效的多模态控制。在多个多样化预测基准上的大量实验表明,UniCast持续优于所有现有TSFM基线,验证了实例条件化多模态控制对下一代时间序列预测的关键作用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting underpins applications in finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. Despite the success of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), existing approaches operate in a unimodal setting and rely on static prompts or fixed fusion schemes, limiting their ability to exploit multimodal context and adapt to instance-level variation. We propose UniCast, a parameter-efficient multimodal framework that extends TSFMs through instance conditioned prompting and dynamic modality routing. UniCast infers a conditional prompt from time series, vision, and text inputs via a Transformer-based contextual distiller, enabling input-specific adaptation without updating the forecasting backbone. To regulate how auxiliary modalities influence predictions, UniCast employs Modality Routing, a cross-attention mechanism that estimates modality relevance given the current temporal state and selectively amplifies informative signals while suppressing noise. Integrated with a frozen TSFM via soft prompt tuning, UniCast preserves foundation-level generalization while enabling effective multimodal control. Extensive experiments across diverse forecasting benchmarks show that UniCast consistently outperforms all existing TSFM baselines, demonstrating that instance-conditioned multimodal control is critical for next-generation time series forecasting.
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